Football · Brazil Serie A · 29/10, 01:30

Prediction: EC Bahia vs Sao Paulo

Team pages: EC Bahia · Sao Paulo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

EC Bahia1.53

Sao Paulo1.01

1X2

48% 28% 24%

EC Bahia Draw Sao Paulo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

EC Bahia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLLWL

Sao Paulo 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

EC Bahia 1–1–4 Sao Paulo (6 last)

Sao Paulo2-2EC Bahia
Sao Paulo2-0EC Bahia
EC Bahia2-1Sao Paulo
EC Bahia0-3Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo3-1EC Bahia
EC Bahia0-1Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Bahia 1513 · Sao Paulo 1505

	EC Bahia	Draw	Sao Paulo
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	48%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sao Paulo: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Bahia	Sao Paulo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	4.2 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +2’	1.91	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Bahia 1–1–4 Sao Paulo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-2 HT 1-0	EC Bahia
26/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-0 HT 2-0	EC Bahia
31/05/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	2-1 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
06/11/24 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	0-3 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo
30/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	3-1 HT 2-0	EC Bahia
30/11/23 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	0-1 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	34	45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	32	39	33
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Bahia	Sao Paulo
Palmeiras	0-1 L	0-2 L
Bragantino	3-2 W	2-1 W
Internacional	3-2 W	1-0 W
Vitoria	2-0 W	2-1 W
Chapecoense	3-3 D	0-1 L
Vasco da Gama	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: EC Bahia (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EC Bahia

DDWWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
12/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
09/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
21/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
15/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
05/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
31/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-1	3-2	3	6	W
23/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
16/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Sao Paulo

DLWWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	8	W
08/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
03/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	14	4	L
20/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
05/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	16	2	W
30/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
23/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Bahia vs Sao Paulo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Bahia win (48%). Probabilities: EC Bahia 48%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 24%.

How many goals are expected in EC Bahia vs Sao Paulo?

The model expects 2.54 goals (EC Bahia 1.53 · Sao Paulo 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Bahia vs Sao Paulo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.