Football · Brazil Serie A · 28/10, 23:30
Prediction: Santos vs Palmeiras
Team pages: Santos · Palmeiras
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.26Total
Santos1.04
Palmeiras1.22
1X2
Santos
Draw
Palmeiras
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Santos
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Palmeiras
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santos
1–2–3
Palmeiras
(6 last)
- Santos0-0Palmeiras
- Palmeiras3-0Santos
- Palmeiras1-1Santos
- Palmeiras1-0Santos
- Santos1-0Palmeiras
- Palmeiras2-0Santos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santos 1555 · Palmeiras 1573
| Santos | Draw | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Market | 31% | 29% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Palmeiras: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santos | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 2.8 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.4 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos 1–2–3 Palmeiras
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/26 Copa do Brasil | Santos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Palmeiras |
| 27/08/26 Copa do Brasil | Palmeiras | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Santos |
| 02/05/26 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Santos |
| 14/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Palmeiras | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Santos |
| 16/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Palmeiras |
| 07/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Santos |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 67 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 66 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 53 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 51 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico Mineiro | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 50 |
| 7 | EC Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 39 | 49 |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 46 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 36 | 35 | 42 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 39 | 36 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 48 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 49 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 34 | 45 | 37 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 44 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco da Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 36 | 43 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 32 | 39 | 33 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 33 | 40 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34 | 44 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | 18 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Santos | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Sao Paulo | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Internacional | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Corinthians | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Mirassol | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Vasco da Gama | 3-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/10 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 03/10 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
3-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Palmeiras
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 09/10 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 10 | D |
| 12/09 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santos vs Palmeiras?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras win (39%). Probabilities: Santos 31%, draw 30%, Palmeiras 39%.
How many goals are expected in Santos vs Palmeiras?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Santos 1.04 · Palmeiras 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Palmeiras?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.