Football · Brazil Serie A · 29/10, 23:30

Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro

Team pages: Atletico Mineiro · Cruzeiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Atletico Mineiro1.58

Cruzeiro1.45

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Atletico Mineiro Draw Cruzeiro

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Mineiro 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDWDWW

Cruzeiro 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Mineiro 3–2–1 Cruzeiro (6 last)

Atletico Mineiro2-1Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro1-1Atletico Mineiro
Cruzeiro1-3Atletico Mineiro
Cruzeiro1-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro2-1Cruzeiro
Atletico Mineiro1-1Cruzeiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1561 · Cruzeiro 1538

	Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Cruzeiro
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Mineiro: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Mineiro	Cruzeiro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.4	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +13’	2.40	3.40	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 3–2–1 Cruzeiro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Copa do Brasil	Atletico Mineiro	2-1 HT 0-1	Cruzeiro
26/08/26 Copa do Brasil	Cruzeiro	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
03/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	1-3 HT 0-2	Atletico Mineiro
08/03/26 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro	Cruzeiro	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
25/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro	Atletico Mineiro	2-1 HT 0-1	Cruzeiro
16/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-1 HT 0-0	Cruzeiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	34	45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	32	39	33
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Mineiro	Cruzeiro
Santos	2-1 W	1-2 L
Athletico Paranaense	2-2 D	3-1 W
Bragantino	1-0 W	2-4 L
Sao Paulo	0-2 L	2-0 W
Vitoria	2-1 W	3-1 W
Gremio	3-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Mineiro

WDWLWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
11/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	12	7	W
09/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
03/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
12/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W

Cruzeiro

WWWLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
13/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-4	6	4	L
08/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-1	2	3	W
13/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
06/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
30/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
23/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
09/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (39%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 39%, draw 27%, Cruzeiro 34%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Atletico Mineiro 1.58 · Cruzeiro 1.45), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.