Football · Brazil Serie A · 17/10, 23:00

Prediction: Botafogo vs Chapecoense

Team pages: Botafogo · Chapecoense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Botafogo2.16

Chapecoense0.87

1X2

66% 21% 13%

Botafogo Draw Chapecoense

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLDDWLL

Chapecoense 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLWLDL

Head-to-head

Botafogo 4–1–1 Chapecoense (6 last)

Chapecoense2-0Botafogo
Botafogo1-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-4Botafogo
Chapecoense0-1Botafogo
Botafogo0-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense0-1Botafogo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo 1466 · Chapecoense 1435

	Botafogo	Draw	Chapecoense
Our model	66%	21%	13%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Botafogo: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo	Chapecoense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.2	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +2’	1.40	4.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo 4–1–1 Chapecoense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Copa do Brasil	Chapecoense	2-0 HT 2-0	Botafogo
21/04/26 Copa do Brasil	Botafogo	1-0 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
18/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-4 HT 1-3	Botafogo
27/11/19 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	0-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo
27/08/19 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	0-0 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
15/11/18 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	0-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	52	22	63
3	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
4	Athletico Paranaense	29	14	8	7	45	34	50
5	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
6	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44	40	48
7	Atletico Mineiro	30	13	8	9	41	35	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35	35	39
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37	47	38
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34	33	37
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42	47	35
14	Vasco da Gama	29	9	8	12	36	42	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	34	44	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	33	38	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	28	3	9	16	29	57	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo	Chapecoense
Gremio	3-2 W	1-3 L
Flamengo	0-3 L	0-4 L
Vitoria	0-1 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo

WDLLLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
19/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
17/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
25/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-3	13	3	L
16/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
09/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
26/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	9	W

Chapecoense

LDLDWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	6	5	L
19/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
07/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
23/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
09/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
25/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
23/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo win (66%). Probabilities: Botafogo 66%, draw 21%, Chapecoense 13%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Botafogo 2.16 · Chapecoense 0.87), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.