Football · Brazil Serie A · 17/10, 23:30

Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba

Team pages: Atletico Mineiro · Coritiba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Atletico Mineiro2.22

Coritiba0.9

1X2

66% 21% 13%

Atletico Mineiro Draw Coritiba

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Mineiro 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWDWDW

Coritiba 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDWWLDLL

Head-to-head

Atletico Mineiro 3–1–2 Coritiba (6 last)

Coritiba2-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro1-2Coritiba
Coritiba1-2Atletico Mineiro
Coritiba0-1Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro2-2Coritiba
Atletico Mineiro2-0Coritiba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1557 · Coritiba 1487

	Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Coritiba
Our model	66%	21%	13%
Market	66%	22%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Mineiro (rating 1557 vs 1487).
H2H favours Atletico Mineiro: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Mineiro	Coritiba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.33

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.42▼	Bet365 1.42
X	4.00 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	7.00 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32	1.45	4.00	7.00
17:20 +13’	1.42▼	4.33▲	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 3–1–2 Coritiba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
08/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-2 HT 0-0	Coritiba
20/05/23 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Mineiro
14/08/22 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
24/04/22 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	2-2 HT 2-0	Coritiba
26/12/20 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	2-0 HT 0-0	Coritiba

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	52	22	63
3	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
4	Athletico Paranaense	29	14	8	7	45	34	50
5	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
6	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44	40	48
7	Atletico Mineiro	30	13	8	9	41	35	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35	35	39
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37	47	38
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34	33	37
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42	47	35
14	Vasco da Gama	29	9	8	12	36	42	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	34	44	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	33	38	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	28	3	9	16	29	57	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Mineiro	Coritiba
Athletico Paranaense	2-2 D	3-3 D
Bragantino	1-0 W	0-0 D
Chapecoense	1-1 D	2-1 W
Fluminense	3-1 W	0-4 L
Sao Paulo	0-2 L	1-1 D
Remo	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Coritiba (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Mineiro

DWDWLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	12	7	W
09/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
03/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
12/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W
08/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D

Coritiba

DLWDWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
20/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
12/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	8	8	D
06/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
01/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-2	4	4	W
24/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
31/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (66%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 66%, draw 21%, Coritiba 13%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Atletico Mineiro 2.22 · Coritiba 0.9), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.