Football · Brazil Serie A · 18/10, 00:30

Prediction: Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras

Team pages: Athletico Paranaense · Palmeiras

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Athletico Paranaense1.23

Palmeiras1.33

1X2

33% 29% 38%

Athletico Paranaense Draw Palmeiras

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletico Paranaense 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDLDWD

Palmeiras 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDWDWW

Head-to-head

Athletico Paranaense 1–1–4 Palmeiras (6 last)

Palmeiras1-0Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense0-2Palmeiras
Palmeiras0-2Athletico Paranaense
Palmeiras1-0Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense2-2Palmeiras
Athletico Paranaense1-3Palmeiras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletico Paranaense 1534 · Palmeiras 1569

	Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Palmeiras
Our model	33%	29%	38%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Palmeiras: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletico Paranaense	Palmeiras
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +5’	2.80	3.20	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletico Paranaense 1–1–4 Palmeiras

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	1-0 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense
01/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	0-2 HT 0-1	Palmeiras
12/05/24 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	0-2 HT 0-1	Athletico Paranaense
05/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	1-0 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense
02/07/23 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	2-2 HT 0-1	Palmeiras
26/10/22 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-3 HT 1-0	Palmeiras

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	52	22	63
3	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
4	Athletico Paranaense	29	14	8	7	45	34	50
5	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
6	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44	40	48
7	Atletico Mineiro	30	13	8	9	41	35	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35	35	39
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37	47	38
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34	33	37
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42	47	35
14	Vasco da Gama	29	9	8	12	36	42	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	34	44	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	33	38	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	28	3	9	16	29	57	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletico Paranaense	Palmeiras
EC Bahia	2-1 W	1-0 W
Fluminense	3-3 D	2-3 L
Botafogo	3-2 W	0-0 D
Corinthians	0-0 D	4-1 W
Internacional	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Athletico Paranaense (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletico Paranaense

WDWDWDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
21/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	3	8	D
06/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
30/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	8	4	D
25/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
15/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
09/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
31/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	0	W

Palmeiras

WDLWDDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-1	7	7	W
09/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
20/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	10	D
12/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
06/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
30/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
15/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
09/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
30/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras win (38%). Probabilities: Athletico Paranaense 33%, draw 29%, Palmeiras 38%.

How many goals are expected in Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Athletico Paranaense 1.23 · Palmeiras 1.33), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.