Football · Bangladesh Premier League · 09/10, 10:45

Prediction: Mohammedan Dhaka vs Arambagh KS

Team pages: Mohammedan Dhaka · Arambagh KS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Mohammedan Dhaka2.28

Arambagh KS0.75

1X2

71% 18% 10%

Mohammedan Dhaka Draw Arambagh KS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mohammedan Dhaka 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLWLWW

Arambagh KS 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLLLDD

Head-to-head

Mohammedan Dhaka 5–1–0 Arambagh KS (6 last)

Mohammedan Dhaka3-1Arambagh KS
Arambagh KS0-2Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka4-0Arambagh KS
Mohammedan Dhaka1-1Arambagh KS
Mohammedan Dhaka2-1Arambagh KS
Arambagh KS0-3Mohammedan Dhaka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mohammedan Dhaka 1549 · Arambagh KS 1450

	Mohammedan Dhaka	Draw	Arambagh KS
Our model	71%	19%	10%
Market	72%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohammedan Dhaka (rating 1549 vs 1450).
H2H favours Mohammedan Dhaka: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mohammedan Dhaka	Arambagh KS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	0.5 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:36 +7’	1.25	5.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mohammedan Dhaka 5–1–0 Arambagh KS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/10/26 Bangladesh Federation Cup	Mohammedan Dhaka	3-1 HT 0-1	Arambagh KS
09/05/26 Bangladesh Premier League	Arambagh KS	0-2 HT 0-0	Mohammedan Dhaka
21/04/26 Bangladesh Federation Cup	Mohammedan Dhaka	4-0 HT 1-0	Arambagh KS
20/12/25 Bangladesh Premier League	Mohammedan Dhaka	1-1 HT 1-1	Arambagh KS
01/05/21 Bangladesh Premier League	Mohammedan Dhaka	2-1 HT 1-0	Arambagh KS
17/01/21 Bangladesh Premier League	Arambagh KS	0-3 HT 0-2	Mohammedan Dhaka

Standings · Bangladesh Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bangladesh Police Club	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Fortis FC	2	1	1	0	9	3	4
3	Dhaka Abahani	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
4	MSPCC City Club	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
5	Mohammedan Dhaka	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	Fakirapool Young Men's Club	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	Arambagh KS	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
8	PWD Sports Club	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Bashundhara Kings	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
10	Rahmatgonj MFS	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Brothers Union	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
12	Dhaka Wanderers Club	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
13	Chattogram City FC	2	0	0	2	0	9	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mohammedan Dhaka	Arambagh KS
Brothers Union	5-0 W	2-2 D
Rahmatgonj MFS	0-1 L	2-2 D
Bashundhara Kings	1-2 L	1-1 D
PWD Sports Club	3-1 W	3-0 W
Dhaka Abahani	1-2 L	0-4 L
Bangladesh Police Club	1-1 D	0-2 L
Fortis FC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Arambagh KS (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mohammedan Dhaka

LDLWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Fakirapool Young Men's Club Bangladesh Premier League	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
23/05	Brothers Union Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	5-0	–	–	W
15/05	Rahmatgonj MFS Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
09/05	Arambagh KS Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
30/04	Bashundhara Kings Bangladesh Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
25/04	PWD Sports Club Bangladesh Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	6	W
17/04	Fakirapool Young Men's Club Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
10/04	Dhaka Abahani Bangladesh Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
13/03	Bangladesh Police Club Bangladesh Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
07/03	Fortis FC Bangladesh Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	5	L

Arambagh KS

WLDWDLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Rahmatgonj MFS Bangladesh Premier League	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
19/09	Bashundhara Kings Bangladesh Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
23/05	Dhaka Abahani Bangladesh Premier League	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
15/05	Bangladesh Police Club Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	Mohammedan Dhaka Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
30/04	Brothers Union Bangladesh Premier League	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
24/04	Rahmatgonj MFS Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
17/04	Fortis FC Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/04	Bashundhara Kings Bangladesh Premier League	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
14/03	PWD Sports Club Bangladesh Premier League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mohammedan Dhaka vs Arambagh KS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mohammedan Dhaka win (71%). Probabilities: Mohammedan Dhaka 71%, draw 18%, Arambagh KS 10%.

How many goals are expected in Mohammedan Dhaka vs Arambagh KS?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Mohammedan Dhaka 2.28 · Arambagh KS 0.75), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mohammedan Dhaka vs Arambagh KS?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.