Football · Bangladesh Premier League · 17/10, 10:45

Prediction: Bangladesh Police Club vs Arambagh KS

Team pages: Bangladesh Police Club · Arambagh KS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Bangladesh Police Club2.67

Arambagh KS0.67

1X2

83% 11% 6%

Bangladesh Police Club Draw Arambagh KS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bangladesh Police Club 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWDWWW

Arambagh KS 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLLDDL

Head-to-head

Bangladesh Police Club 6–0 Arambagh KS (6 last)

Bangladesh Police Club2-0Arambagh KS
Arambagh KS0-3Bangladesh Police Club
Arambagh KS0-1Bangladesh Police Club
Bangladesh Police Club1-0Arambagh KS
Arambagh KS1-2Bangladesh Police Club
Bangladesh Police Club3-1Arambagh KS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bangladesh Police Club 1563 · Arambagh KS 1409

	Bangladesh Police Club	Draw	Arambagh KS
Our model	79%	15%	6%
Market	87%	9%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bangladesh Police Club (rating 1563 vs 1409).
H2H favours Bangladesh Police Club: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bangladesh Police Club	Arambagh KS
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.7	0.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5	0.4 / 1.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.6	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.08

X11.00

219.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.88

2 (+3)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 1.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.08	Bet365 1.08
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:51 +20’	1.08	11.00	19.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bangladesh Police Club 6–0–0 Arambagh KS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Bangladesh Premier League	Bangladesh Police Club	2-0 HT 0-0	Arambagh KS
26/12/25 Bangladesh Premier League	Arambagh KS	0-3 HT 0-2	Bangladesh Police Club
02/12/25 Bangladesh Federation Cup	Arambagh KS	0-1 HT 0-0	Bangladesh Police Club
19/08/21 Bangladesh Premier League	Bangladesh Police Club	1-0 HT 0-0	Arambagh KS
25/02/21 Bangladesh Premier League	Arambagh KS	1-2 HT 0-2	Bangladesh Police Club
21/12/19 Bangladesh Federation Cup	Bangladesh Police Club	3-1 HT 1-0	Arambagh KS

Standings · Bangladesh Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bangladesh Police Club	3	3	0	0	12	0	9
2	Fortis FC	3	2	1	0	15	3	7
3	MSPCC City Club	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
4	Mohammedan Dhaka	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
5	Bashundhara Kings	2	1	1	0	8	1	4
6	Dhaka Abahani	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
7	PWD Sports Club	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
8	Fakirapool Young Men's Club	3	1	0	2	2	10	3
9	Rahmatgonj MFS	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
10	Arambagh KS	3	0	2	1	3	9	2
11	Brothers Union	3	0	1	2	1	10	1
12	Chattogram City FC	3	0	0	3	1	11	0
13	Dhaka Wanderers Club	3	0	0	3	2	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bangladesh Police Club	Arambagh KS
Rahmatgonj MFS	1-0 W	2-2 D
Bashundhara Kings	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dhaka Abahani	1-3 L	0-4 L
Fortis FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bangladesh Police Club (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bangladesh Police Club

LLWWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Fakirapool Young Men's Club Bangladesh Premier League	3-0	8-0	7	2	W
02/10	Chattogram City FC Bangladesh Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
18/09	Rahmatgonj MFS Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
23/05	Rahmatgonj MFS Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
15/05	Arambagh KS Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/05	Bashundhara Kings Bangladesh Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	9	D
01/05	PWD Sports Club Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
25/04	Fakirapool Young Men's Club Bangladesh Premier League	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
17/04	Dhaka Abahani Bangladesh Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	10	L
11/04	Fortis FC Bangladesh Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	3	L

Arambagh KS

LDWDLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Mohammedan Dhaka Bangladesh Premier League	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
03/10	Rahmatgonj MFS Bangladesh Premier League	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
19/09	Bashundhara Kings Bangladesh Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
23/05	Dhaka Abahani Bangladesh Premier League	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
15/05	Bangladesh Police Club Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	Mohammedan Dhaka Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
30/04	Brothers Union Bangladesh Premier League	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
24/04	Rahmatgonj MFS Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
17/04	Fortis FC Bangladesh Premier League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/04	Bashundhara Kings Bangladesh Premier League	0-2	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bangladesh Police Club vs Arambagh KS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bangladesh Police Club win (83%). Probabilities: Bangladesh Police Club 83%, draw 11%, Arambagh KS 6%.

How many goals are expected in Bangladesh Police Club vs Arambagh KS?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Bangladesh Police Club 2.67 · Arambagh KS 0.67), with a 58% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Bangladesh Police Club vs Arambagh KS?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.