Football · Uruguay Clausura · 17/10, 00:00
Prediction: Cerro vs Cerro Largo
Team pages: Cerro · Cerro Largo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.14Total
Cerro1.39
Cerro Largo0.75
1X2
Cerro
Draw
Cerro Largo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Cerro
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Cerro Largo
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerro
1–2–3
Cerro Largo
(6 last)
- Cerro Largo2-0Cerro
- Cerro Largo1-1Cerro
- Cerro0-1Cerro Largo
- Cerro2-1Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo0-0Cerro
- Cerro Largo3-1Cerro
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro (rating 1484 vs 1442).
- H2H favours Cerro Largo: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerro | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro 1–2–3 Cerro Largo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Cerro Largo | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro |
| 11/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro Largo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cerro |
| 07/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 19/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Cerro | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 17/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro Largo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro |
| 28/09/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Cerro |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerro | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Montevideo Wanderers | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Albion FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Danubio | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerro (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 13 | W |
| 04/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 09/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
Cerro Largo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 26/09 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 31/08 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerro vs Cerro Largo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro win (51%). Probabilities: Cerro 51%, draw 30%, Cerro Largo 19%.
How many goals are expected in Cerro vs Cerro Largo?
The model expects 2.14 goals (Cerro 1.39 · Cerro Largo 0.75), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerro vs Cerro Largo?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.