Football · Uruguay Clausura · 25/10, 23:30
Prediction: Nacional De Football vs Liverpool Montevideo
Team pages: Nacional De Football · Liverpool Montevideo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Nacional De Football1.52
Liverpool Montevideo1.02
1X2
Nacional De Football
Draw
Liverpool Montevideo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional De Football
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Liverpool Montevideo
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional De Football
4–2–0
Liverpool Montevideo
(6 last)
- Liverpool Montevideo1-3Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football3-1Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo2-2Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football1-0Liverpool Montevideo
- Nacional De Football2-1Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo1-1Nacional De Football
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional De Football 1619 · Liverpool Montevideo 1555
| Nacional De Football | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (rating 1619 vs 1555).
- H2H favours Nacional De Football: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional De Football | Liverpool Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.7 | 2.6 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.2 | 6.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional De Football 4–2–0 Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Liverpool Montevideo | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Nacional De Football |
| 20/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Nacional De Football | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 26/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Liverpool Montevideo | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Nacional De Football |
| 08/09/24 Uruguay Clausura | Nacional De Football | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 15/06/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Nacional De Football | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 25/02/24 Uruguay Apertura | Liverpool Montevideo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Nacional De Football |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional De Football | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Central Espanol | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Torque | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Cerro Largo | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Defensor Sporting | 3-2 W | 4-0 W |
| Penarol | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Club Atletico Progreso | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional De Football (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional De Football
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 26/09 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 13 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 8 | W |
| 15/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 10/10 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 27/09 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 15/09 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 07/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional De Football vs Liverpool Montevideo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional De Football win (48%). Probabilities: Nacional De Football 48%, draw 28%, Liverpool Montevideo 24%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional De Football vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Nacional De Football 1.52 · Liverpool Montevideo 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional De Football vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.