Prediction: Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol
Team pages: Liverpool Montevideo · Penarol
- Penarol2-1Liverpool Montevideo
- Penarol0-2Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo0-0Penarol
- Liverpool Montevideo2-2Penarol
- Penarol2-1Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo3-2Penarol
| Liverpool Montevideo | Draw | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 32% | 39% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Liverpool Montevideo | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liverpool Montevideo 2–2–2 Penarol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 14/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 16/11/25 Uruguay Grand Final | Liverpool Montevideo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Penarol |
| 13/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Liverpool Montevideo | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Penarol |
| 11/09/25 Uruguay Cup | Penarol | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 19/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Liverpool Montevideo | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Penarol |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Liverpool Montevideo | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Club Atletico Progreso | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Central Espanol | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Torque | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Boston River | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Cerro | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Albion FC | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 5 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 27/09 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 15/09 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 07/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 01/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penarol win (40%). Probabilities: Liverpool Montevideo 30%, draw 30%, Penarol 40%.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
The model expects 2.15 goals (Liverpool Montevideo 0.97 · Penarol 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.