Football · Uruguay Clausura · 20/10, 01:00
Prediction: Nacional De Football vs Deportivo Maldonado
Team pages: Nacional De Football · Deportivo Maldonado
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Nacional De Football1.49
Deportivo Maldonado0.87
1X2
Nacional De Football
Draw
Deportivo Maldonado
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional De Football
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Maldonado
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional De Football
2–1–3
Deportivo Maldonado
(6 last)
- Deportivo Maldonado3-0Nacional De Football
- Deportivo Maldonado4-2Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football0-0Deportivo Maldonado
- Nacional De Football5-2Deportivo Maldonado
- Deportivo Maldonado0-2Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football1-3Deportivo Maldonado
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional De Football 1575 · Deportivo Maldonado 1605
| Nacional De Football | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 29% | 21% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Deportivo Maldonado: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional De Football | Deportivo Maldonado | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 7 | 1.9 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional De Football 2–1–3 Deportivo Maldonado
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Deportivo Maldonado | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional De Football |
| 12/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Deportivo Maldonado | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Nacional De Football |
| 14/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga | Nacional De Football | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 16/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Nacional De Football | 5-2 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 21/05/24 Uruguay Apertura | Deportivo Maldonado | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Nacional De Football |
| 24/10/23 Uruguay Clausura | Nacional De Football | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Deportivo Maldonado |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional De Football | Deportivo Maldonado |
|---|---|---|
| Central Espanol | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Torque | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Cerro Largo | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Defensor Sporting | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Montevideo Wanderers | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Penarol | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Club Atletico Progreso | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Maldonado (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional De Football
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 26/09 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 13 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 8 | W |
| 15/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
Deportivo Maldonado
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional De Football vs Deportivo Maldonado?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional De Football win (51%). Probabilities: Nacional De Football 51%, draw 28%, Deportivo Maldonado 21%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional De Football vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Nacional De Football 1.49 · Deportivo Maldonado 0.87), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional De Football vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.