Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 13/10, 00:20
Prediction: Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
Team pages: Nacional Asuncion · Deportivo Recoleta
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Nacional Asuncion1.64
Deportivo Recoleta0.98
1X2
Nacional Asuncion
Draw
Deportivo Recoleta
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional Asuncion
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Recoleta
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional Asuncion
2–3–1
Deportivo Recoleta
(6 last)
- Deportivo Recoleta3-2Nacional Asuncion
- Nacional Asuncion2-1Deportivo Recoleta
- Nacional Asuncion1-1Deportivo Recoleta
- Deportivo Recoleta2-2Nacional Asuncion
- Deportivo Recoleta0-0Nacional Asuncion
- Nacional Asuncion1-0Deportivo Recoleta
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional Asuncion 1572 · Deportivo Recoleta 1440
| Nacional Asuncion | Draw | Deportivo Recoleta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Asuncion (rating 1572 vs 1440).
- H2H favours Nacional Asuncion: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.6 | 2.3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Asuncion 2–3–1 Deportivo Recoleta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Nacional Asuncion |
| 24/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Nacional Asuncion | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Recoleta |
| 05/03/26 Copa Sudamericana | Nacional Asuncion | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Recoleta |
| 27/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Nacional Asuncion |
| 28/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional Asuncion |
| 06/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Nacional Asuncion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Recoleta |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Olimpia Asuncion | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| 2 de Mayo | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Rubio Nu | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Cerro Porteno | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Libertad Asuncion | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Sportivo Luqueno | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Sportivo Trinidense | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Guarani Asuncion | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 4 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 8 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional Asuncion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 18/09 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 02/09 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 09/08 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
Deportivo Recoleta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 28/09 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 07/09 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 03/09 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 14/08 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Asuncion win (51%). Probabilities: Nacional Asuncion 51%, draw 27%, Deportivo Recoleta 21%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Nacional Asuncion 1.64 · Deportivo Recoleta 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.