Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 19/10, 00:20

Prediction: Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo San Lorenzo

Team pages: Sportivo Luqueno · Sportivo San Lorenzo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Sportivo Luqueno1.4

Sportivo San Lorenzo0.85

1X2

49% 28% 22%

Sportivo Luqueno Draw Sportivo San Lorenzo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Luqueno 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo San Lorenzo 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo Luqueno 2–2–2 Sportivo San Lorenzo (6 last)

Sportivo San Lorenzo0-2Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo San Lorenzo0-0Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno1-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo2-0Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno1-2Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo1-2Sportivo Luqueno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Luqueno 1447 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1430

	Sportivo Luqueno	Draw	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Our model	48%	30%	22%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Luqueno	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.9	0.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:50

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.73
X	3.58 → 3.58	Pinn 3.58
2	4.46 → 4.46	Pinn 4.46

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:41 +9’	1.73	3.58	4.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Luqueno 2–2–2 Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-2 HT 0-1	Sportivo Luqueno
17/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Luqueno
13/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	1-1 HT 1-1	Sportivo San Lorenzo
02/10/22 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo San Lorenzo	2-0 HT 2-0	Sportivo Luqueno
25/06/22 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo Luqueno	1-2 HT 0-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo
12/11/20 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-2 HT 0-1	Sportivo Luqueno

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Luqueno	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Cerro Porteno	0-3 L	0-1 L
Sportivo Trinidense	2-3 L	1-1 D
Guarani Asuncion	0-1 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	1-0 W	0-0 D
Olimpia Asuncion	0-3 L	0-3 L
Sportivo Ameliano	1-2 L	0-1 L
2 de Mayo	2-2 D	1-2 L
Rubio Nu	2-1 W	1-3 L
Nacional Asuncion	0-2 L	0-3 L
Libertad Asuncion	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 7 L	0 W 3 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Luqueno (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Luqueno

LLWDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	7	4	L
05/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
25/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
20/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
06/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
01/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-2	8	5	D
28/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
24/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
16/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	8	3	L

Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
03/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
28/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
20/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
11/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
05/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
01/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-3	5	7	L
28/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
24/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
16/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Luqueno win (49%). Probabilities: Sportivo Luqueno 49%, draw 28%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 22%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Sportivo Luqueno 1.4 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 0.85), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.