Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 18/10, 22:00
Prediction: Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
Team pages: Cerro Porteno · Sportivo Ameliano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Cerro Porteno1.51
Sportivo Ameliano0.8
1X2
Cerro Porteno
Draw
Sportivo Ameliano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Cerro Porteno
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Sportivo Ameliano
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerro Porteno
3–2–1
Sportivo Ameliano
(6 last)
- Sportivo Ameliano1-0Cerro Porteno
- Cerro Porteno1-1Sportivo Ameliano
- Sportivo Ameliano0-1Cerro Porteno
- Cerro Porteno2-0Sportivo Ameliano
- Sportivo Ameliano0-1Cerro Porteno
- Sportivo Ameliano0-0Cerro Porteno
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cerro Porteno 1528 · Sportivo Ameliano 1483
| Cerro Porteno | Draw | Sportivo Ameliano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro Porteno (rating 1528 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Cerro Porteno: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerro Porteno | Sportivo Ameliano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.9 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Porteno 3–2–1 Sportivo Ameliano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Ameliano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Porteno |
| 25/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sportivo Ameliano |
| 25/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Ameliano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro Porteno |
| 21/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Ameliano |
| 12/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Ameliano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro Porteno |
| 22/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Ameliano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Porteno |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerro Porteno | Sportivo Ameliano |
|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Luqueno | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| 2 de Mayo | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Sportivo Trinidense | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Rubio Nu | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Guarani Asuncion | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Nacional Asuncion | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Libertad Asuncion | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Olimpia Asuncion | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerro Porteno
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/10 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 16 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 07/09 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 03/09 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 23/08 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Sportivo Ameliano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/10 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 26/09 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 11/09 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/09 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Porteno win (54%). Probabilities: Cerro Porteno 54%, draw 27%, Sportivo Ameliano 19%.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Cerro Porteno 1.51 · Sportivo Ameliano 0.8), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.