Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 12/10, 00:20

Prediction: Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion

Team pages: Libertad Asuncion · Guarani Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Libertad Asuncion1.39

Guarani Asuncion0.97

1X2

46% 29% 25%

Libertad Asuncion Draw Guarani Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Libertad Asuncion 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWDLW

Guarani Asuncion 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DLDDDWDWWD

Head-to-head

Libertad Asuncion 1–2–3 Guarani Asuncion (6 last)

Guarani Asuncion2-1Libertad Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion1-0Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion3-3Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion1-2Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion2-2Guarani Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion0-4Guarani Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Libertad Asuncion 1540 · Guarani Asuncion 1526

	Libertad Asuncion	Draw	Guarani Asuncion
Our model	45%	30%	25%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guarani Asuncion: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Libertad Asuncion	Guarani Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.06
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.21
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.93 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +1’	1.95	3.20	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +2460’	2.00	3.28	3.80
00:24 +23’	2.02▲	3.31▲	3.85▲
11:06 +21’	2.03▲	3.28▼	3.86▲
12:24 +30’	2.04▲	3.30▲	3.88▲
14:04 +49’	2.06▲	3.21▼	3.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Asuncion 1–2–3 Guarani Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-1 HT 0-1	Libertad Asuncion
06/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-0 HT 1-0	Libertad Asuncion
08/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	3-3 HT 1-3	Guarani Asuncion
09/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-2 HT 1-0	Libertad Asuncion
02/10/25 Paraguay Cup	Libertad Asuncion	2-2 HT 1-2	Guarani Asuncion
25/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	0-4 HT 0-2	Guarani Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Libertad Asuncion	Guarani Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta	2-1 W	2-0 W
Olimpia Asuncion	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 D	1-1 D
2 de Mayo	2-0 W	0-0 D
Rubio Nu	4-2 W	2-3 L
Nacional Asuncion	0-3 L	0-0 D
Cerro Porteno	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Sportivo Luqueno	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 6 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Libertad Asuncion

WWWDLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
29/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
19/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
11/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
06/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	4-2	9	3	W
02/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
30/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
24/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	6	W

Guarani Asuncion

DLDDDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
12/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
07/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
02/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
25/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
15/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
09/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	1	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Asuncion win (46%). Probabilities: Libertad Asuncion 46%, draw 29%, Guarani Asuncion 25%.

How many goals are expected in Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Libertad Asuncion 1.39 · Guarani Asuncion 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.