Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 12/10, 00:00

Prediction: Monagas vs Estudiantes Merida

Team pages: Monagas · Estudiantes Merida

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Monagas1.4

Estudiantes Merida1.09

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Monagas Draw Estudiantes Merida

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Monagas 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWLWWD

Estudiantes Merida 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDLWLD

Head-to-head

Monagas 1–5 Estudiantes Merida (6 last)

Estudiantes Merida3-2Monagas
Monagas1-0Estudiantes Merida
Estudiantes Merida2-0Monagas
Monagas2-3Estudiantes Merida
Estudiantes Merida2-0Monagas
Estudiantes Merida2-1Monagas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monagas 1518 · Estudiantes Merida 1515

	Monagas	Draw	Estudiantes Merida
Our model	43%	29%	28%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Estudiantes Merida: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monagas	Estudiantes Merida
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0	6.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.15 ★
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.17
2	3.50 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.21

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:27 +5’	1.95	3.20	3.50
08:44 +2’	2.10▲	3.10▼	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27 +47’	2.15	3.17	3.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monagas 1–0–5 Estudiantes Merida

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	3-2 HT 1-1	Monagas
20/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-0 HT 0-0	Estudiantes Merida
07/02/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	2-0 HT 0-0	Monagas
11/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	2-3 HT 2-1	Estudiantes Merida
03/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	2-0 HT 1-0	Monagas
22/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	2-1 HT 2-1	Monagas

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	11	9	1	1	24	9	28
2	Deportivo Tachira	11	7	2	2	24	14	23
3	Academia Puerto Cabello	11	5	4	2	15	9	19
4	Carabobo	11	5	3	3	12	8	18
5	Portuguesa	11	4	5	2	14	12	17
6	Deportivo La Guaira	11	5	1	5	21	16	16
7	Estudiantes Merida	11	4	4	3	12	12	16
8	UCV	11	4	3	4	12	11	15
9	Monagas	11	4	2	5	12	13	14
10	Caracas	11	2	5	4	9	14	11
11	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	11	3	2	6	17	23	11
12	Trujillanos	11	3	2	6	12	18	11
13	Zamora	11	2	2	7	10	21	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	11	1	2	8	6	20	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monagas	Estudiantes Merida
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	1-1 D	0-3 L
Zamora	1-0 W	1-0 W
Academia Anzoategui FC	3-1 W	1-0 W
Trujillanos	1-3 L	1-1 D
Portuguesa	0-0 D	1-2 L
Deportivo Tachira	2-3 L	2-0 W
Carabobo	1-0 W	0-1 L
UCV	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Monagas (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monagas

LWLDLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
17/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
06/09	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
03/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	1	6	W
30/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
23/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
16/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
05/08	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	2	3	L

Estudiantes Merida

WLWDWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/09	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	1-2	6	10	L
12/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
08/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
04/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
31/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
22/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
15/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-3	6	9	L
06/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monagas vs Estudiantes Merida?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monagas win (43%). Probabilities: Monagas 43%, draw 29%, Estudiantes Merida 28%.

How many goals are expected in Monagas vs Estudiantes Merida?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Monagas 1.4 · Estudiantes Merida 1.09), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Monagas vs Estudiantes Merida?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.