Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 18/10, 21:30

Prediction: UCV vs Portuguesa

Team pages: UCV · Portuguesa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

UCV1.5

Portuguesa1.08

1X2

46% 28% 26%

UCV Draw Portuguesa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UCV 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDWWDL

Portuguesa 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDDDWLD

Head-to-head

UCV 2–2–2 Portuguesa (6 last)

UCV2-3Portuguesa
Portuguesa1-1UCV
Portuguesa3-0UCV
UCV2-0Portuguesa
Portuguesa1-3UCV
UCV2-2Portuguesa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UCV 1476 · Portuguesa 1539

	UCV	Draw	Portuguesa
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portuguesa (rating 1476 vs 1539).
Cards-heavy: 13.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UCV	Portuguesa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.2	7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.07 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.47

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:52 +14’	1.95	3.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:22 +4’	1.99	3.27	3.53
11:29 +65’	2.04▲	3.22▼	3.44▼
10:06 +40’	2.05▲	3.17▼	3.45▲
11:49 +77’	2.07▲	3.13▼	3.46▲
23:12 +2’	2.07	3.11▼	3.47▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UCV 2–2–2 Portuguesa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	UCV	2-3 HT 0-2	Portuguesa
03/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	1-1 HT 1-0	UCV
25/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	3-0 HT 2-0	UCV
04/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division	UCV	2-0 HT 0-0	Portuguesa
01/06/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	1-3 HT 1-2	UCV
11/05/25 Venezuela Primera Division	UCV	2-2 HT 1-1	Portuguesa

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	12	10	1	1	28	9	31
2	Deportivo Tachira	13	8	3	2	30	17	27
3	Academia Puerto Cabello	12	6	4	2	16	9	22
4	Carabobo	13	6	4	3	15	10	22
5	Portuguesa	12	4	6	2	14	12	18
6	Deportivo La Guaira	13	5	2	6	22	18	17
7	Monagas	12	5	2	5	14	14	17
8	Estudiantes Merida	12	4	4	4	13	14	16
9	UCV	12	4	3	5	13	15	15
10	Caracas	12	3	5	4	13	15	14
11	Trujillanos	13	4	2	7	14	20	14
12	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	12	3	2	7	17	27	11
13	Academia Anzoategui FC	13	2	2	9	8	22	8
14	Zamora	13	2	2	9	12	27	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UCV	Portuguesa
Academia Anzoategui FC	1-0 W	4-3 W
Deportivo La Guaira	2-0 W	0-0 D
Academia Puerto Cabello	0-0 D	1-2 L
Estudiantes Merida	1-1 D	2-1 W
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	4-1 W	1-1 D
Zamora	0-2 L	1-1 D
Caracas	0-1 L	1-1 D
Metropolitanos FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 5 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Portuguesa (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UCV

LLLWDDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
19/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	8	11	D
16/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
12/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
08/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
01/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	4-1	6	10	W
22/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-2	11	5	L
15/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
10/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	4	5	L

Portuguesa

WWDDDDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
20/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
16/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-1	1	10	W
13/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
06/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
03/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
31/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
09/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	4-3	7	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UCV vs Portuguesa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UCV win (46%). Probabilities: UCV 46%, draw 28%, Portuguesa 26%.

How many goals are expected in UCV vs Portuguesa?

The model expects 2.58 goals (UCV 1.5 · Portuguesa 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UCV vs Portuguesa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.