Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 18/10, 21:30
Prediction: Estudiantes Merida vs Metropolitanos FC
Team pages: Estudiantes Merida · Metropolitanos FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Estudiantes Merida1.56
Metropolitanos FC0.82
1X2
Estudiantes Merida
Draw
Metropolitanos FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Estudiantes Merida
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Metropolitanos FC
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estudiantes Merida
1–5
Metropolitanos FC
(6 last)
- Estudiantes Merida0-1Metropolitanos FC
- Metropolitanos FC2-0Estudiantes Merida
- Metropolitanos FC2-0Estudiantes Merida
- Metropolitanos FC1-0Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida1-2Metropolitanos FC
- Estudiantes Merida3-2Metropolitanos FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estudiantes Merida 1463 · Metropolitanos FC 1617
| Estudiantes Merida | Draw | Metropolitanos FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 54% | 27% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metropolitanos FC (rating 1463 vs 1617).
- H2H favours Metropolitanos FC: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estudiantes Merida | Metropolitanos FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 2.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.1 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.6 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes Merida 1–0–5 Metropolitanos FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Metropolitanos FC |
| 09/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Metropolitanos FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 27/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Metropolitanos FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 13/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Metropolitanos FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 05/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Metropolitanos FC |
| 17/01/25 America Friendlies | Estudiantes Merida | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Metropolitanos FC |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Carabobo | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Deportivo La Guaira | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 17 |
| 7 | Monagas | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 8 | Estudiantes Merida | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 9 | UCV | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| 10 | Caracas | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Trujillanos | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 14 |
| 12 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 27 | 11 |
| 13 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 22 | 8 |
| 14 | Zamora | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 27 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estudiantes Merida | Metropolitanos FC |
|---|---|---|
| Monagas | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Trujillanos | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Portuguesa | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Deportivo Tachira | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Carabobo | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| UCV | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Academia Anzoategui FC | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 0-3 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 6 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Metropolitanos FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estudiantes Merida
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 10 | L |
| 20/09 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/09 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 12/09 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 08/09 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 31/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
Metropolitanos FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/09 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 17/09 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/09 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 10/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estudiantes Merida vs Metropolitanos FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Estudiantes Merida win (54%). Probabilities: Estudiantes Merida 54%, draw 27%, Metropolitanos FC 19%.
How many goals are expected in Estudiantes Merida vs Metropolitanos FC?
The model expects 2.38 goals (Estudiantes Merida 1.56 · Metropolitanos FC 0.82), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes Merida vs Metropolitanos FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.