Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 17/10, 22:00

Prediction: Carabobo vs Deportivo Tachira

Team pages: Carabobo · Deportivo Tachira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Carabobo1.48

Deportivo Tachira1.24

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Carabobo Draw Deportivo Tachira

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Carabobo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWWDW

Deportivo Tachira 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWLDWW

Head-to-head

Carabobo 1–2–3 Deportivo Tachira (6 last)

Carabobo1-1Deportivo Tachira
Deportivo Tachira3-1Carabobo
Deportivo Tachira2-1Carabobo
Deportivo Tachira1-2Carabobo
Carabobo1-1Deportivo Tachira
Deportivo Tachira3-0Carabobo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carabobo 1537 · Deportivo Tachira 1562

	Carabobo	Draw	Deportivo Tachira
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Tachira: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carabobo	Deportivo Tachira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	2.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
22:57 +9’	2.20	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carabobo 1–2–3 Deportivo Tachira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Tachira
10/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	3-1 HT 2-0	Carabobo
25/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	2-1 HT 2-0	Carabobo
02/11/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	1-2 HT 1-0	Carabobo
26/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Tachira
05/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	3-0 HT 0-0	Carabobo

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	12	10	1	1	28	9	31
2	Deportivo Tachira	12	8	2	2	28	15	26
3	Academia Puerto Cabello	12	6	4	2	16	9	22
4	Carabobo	12	6	3	3	13	8	21
5	Portuguesa	12	4	6	2	14	12	18
6	Deportivo La Guaira	12	5	2	5	21	16	17
7	Monagas	12	5	2	5	14	14	17
8	Estudiantes Merida	12	4	4	4	13	14	16
9	UCV	12	4	3	5	13	15	15
10	Caracas	12	3	5	4	13	15	14
11	Trujillanos	12	3	2	7	12	19	11
12	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	12	3	2	7	17	27	11
13	Zamora	12	2	2	8	11	25	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	12	1	2	9	6	21	5

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carabobo	Deportivo Tachira
UCV	1-1 D	4-1 W
Deportivo La Guaira	1-0 W	4-2 W
Academia Puerto Cabello	2-0 W	1-1 D
Estudiantes Merida	1-0 W	0-2 L
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	3-4 L	3-1 W
Zamora	0-0 D	5-2 W
Caracas	1-1 D	0-0 D
Metropolitanos FC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Monagas	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Tachira (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carabobo

LWDDLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
19/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	2	11	D
16/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
13/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-0	4	0	W
08/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
03/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-4	8	8	L
31/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
17/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	9	7	L

Deportivo Tachira

WWLDWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
20/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	3-1	4-2	3	6	W
16/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
06/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
02/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	5-2	2	4	W
30/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
23/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-3	6	4	L
16/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
09/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	3-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carabobo vs Deportivo Tachira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carabobo win (41%). Probabilities: Carabobo 41%, draw 29%, Deportivo Tachira 30%.

How many goals are expected in Carabobo vs Deportivo Tachira?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Carabobo 1.48 · Deportivo Tachira 1.24), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Carabobo vs Deportivo Tachira?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.