Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 11/10, 23:30
Prediction: Caracas vs Zamora
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
Caracas1.68
Zamora0.8
1X2
Caracas
Draw
Zamora
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Caracas
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Zamora
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caracas
3–1–2
Zamora
(6 last)
- Zamora1-1Caracas
- Caracas2-0Zamora
- Zamora3-0Caracas
- Caracas3-1Zamora
- Zamora2-1Caracas
- Caracas2-1Zamora
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caracas 1518 · Zamora 1454
| Caracas | Draw | Zamora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caracas (rating 1518 vs 1454).
- H2H favours Caracas: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caracas | Zamora | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.5 | 1.8 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.4 | 5.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caracas 3–1–2 Zamora
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Zamora | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Caracas |
| 21/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Zamora |
| 14/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Zamora | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Caracas |
| 09/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Zamora |
| 03/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Zamora | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Caracas |
| 28/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Zamora |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Carabobo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Deportivo La Guaira | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | Estudiantes Merida | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 16 |
| 8 | UCV | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| 9 | Monagas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 10 | Caracas | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 11 |
| 11 | Trujillanos | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 11 |
| 12 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 27 | 11 |
| 13 | Zamora | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 8 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 5 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caracas | Zamora |
|---|---|---|
| Metropolitanos FC | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Monagas | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Trujillanos | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Portuguesa | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Tachira | 0-0 D | 2-5 L |
| Carabobo | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| UCV | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 1-2 L | 1-6 L |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 4 L | 1 W 2 D 6 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caracas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/09 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 07/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Zamora
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 17/09 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 02/09 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 17/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-4 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 09/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caracas vs Zamora?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caracas win (57%). Probabilities: Caracas 57%, draw 26%, Zamora 17%.
How many goals are expected in Caracas vs Zamora?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Caracas 1.68 · Zamora 0.8), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Caracas vs Zamora?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.