Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 11/10, 00:00

Prediction: Deportivo Tachira vs UCV

Team pages: Deportivo Tachira · UCV

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Deportivo Tachira1.8

UCV0.94

1X2

56% 25% 18%

Deportivo Tachira Draw UCV

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Tachira 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWLDW

UCV 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDDWWD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Tachira 3–1–2 UCV (6 last)

UCV1-1Deportivo Tachira
UCV1-2Deportivo Tachira
UCV1-0Deportivo Tachira
Deportivo Tachira1-0UCV
Deportivo Tachira2-0UCV
UCV2-0Deportivo Tachira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Tachira 1552 · UCV 1515

	Deportivo Tachira	Draw	UCV
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Tachira: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Tachira	UCV
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:10 +2’	1.60	3.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Tachira 3–1–2 UCV

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	UCV	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Tachira
19/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division	UCV	1-2 HT 1-0	Deportivo Tachira
14/06/25 Venezuela Primera Division	UCV	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Tachira
08/02/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	1-0 HT 0-0	UCV
06/10/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	2-0 HT 0-0	UCV
08/07/24 Venezuela Cup	UCV	2-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Tachira

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	11	9	1	1	24	9	28
2	Deportivo Tachira	11	7	2	2	24	14	23
3	Academia Puerto Cabello	11	5	4	2	15	9	19
4	Carabobo	11	5	3	3	12	8	18
5	Portuguesa	11	4	5	2	14	12	17
6	Deportivo La Guaira	11	5	1	5	21	16	16
7	Estudiantes Merida	11	4	4	3	12	12	16
8	UCV	11	4	3	4	12	11	15
9	Monagas	11	4	2	5	12	13	14
10	Caracas	11	2	5	4	9	14	11
11	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	11	3	2	6	17	23	11
12	Trujillanos	11	3	2	6	12	18	11
13	Zamora	11	2	2	7	10	21	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	11	1	2	8	6	20	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Tachira	UCV
Deportivo La Guaira	4-2 W	2-0 W
Academia Puerto Cabello	1-1 D	0-0 D
Estudiantes Merida	0-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	3-1 W	4-1 W
Zamora	5-2 W	0-2 L
Caracas	0-0 D	0-1 L
Metropolitanos FC	1-3 L	1-2 L
Monagas	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: UCV (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Tachira

WWWLDWWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	3-1	4-2	3	6	W
16/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
06/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
02/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	5-2	2	4	W
30/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
23/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-3	6	4	L
16/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
09/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	3-1	2	2	W
05/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

UCV

WLLLWDDWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	8	11	D
16/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
12/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
08/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
01/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	4-1	6	10	W
22/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-2	11	5	L
15/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
10/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
05/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Tachira vs UCV?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Tachira win (56%). Probabilities: Deportivo Tachira 56%, draw 25%, UCV 18%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Tachira vs UCV?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Deportivo Tachira 1.8 · UCV 0.94), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Tachira vs UCV?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.