Football · Uruguay Segunda · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: Uruguay Montevideo vs Colon FC

Team pages: Uruguay Montevideo · Colon FC

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Uruguay Montevideo0.88

Colon FC1.21

1X2

26% 30% 43%

Uruguay Montevideo Draw Colon FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Uruguay Montevideo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLDLLL

Colon FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWLDLD

Head-to-head

Uruguay Montevideo 1–1–4 Colon FC (6 last)

Colon FC1-0Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo0-1Colon FC
Colon FC5-1Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo0-1Colon FC
Colon FC0-0Uruguay Montevideo
Colon FC0-2Uruguay Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Uruguay Montevideo 1437 · Colon FC 1486

	Uruguay Montevideo	Draw	Colon FC
Our model	26%	32%	42%
Market	27%	29%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colon FC (rating 1437 vs 1486).
H2H favours Colon FC: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Uruguay Montevideo	Colon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/22/44%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	3.1 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.10

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.52 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.15 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.11

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:16 +5’	3.10	3.10	2.15
11:51 +4’	3.30▲	3.10	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27 +215’	3.52	2.99	2.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Uruguay Montevideo 1–1–4 Colon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/07/26 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Uruguay Montevideo
27/09/25 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	0-1 HT 0-1	Colon FC
05/07/25 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	5-1 HT 4-0	Uruguay Montevideo
10/11/24 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	0-1 HT 0-0	Colon FC
22/07/24 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Uruguay Montevideo
01/07/18 Uruguay Division 3	Colon FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Uruguay Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Uruguay Montevideo	Colon FC
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-2 L	1-1 D
Rentistas	1-3 L	0-1 L
Miramar Misiones	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tacuarembo	2-2 D	1-0 W
Plaza Colonia	0-1 L	1-1 D
La Luz	0-0 D	2-1 W
Cerrito	0-3 L	1-0 W
CA Atenas	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Colon FC (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Uruguay Montevideo

WWLLDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
26/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-3	3	9	L
19/09	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
12/09	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-2	2	1	D
08/09	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
29/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
22/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
08/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-1	2	4	W

Colon FC

LWWDWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-3	9	8	L
19/09	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
13/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
06/09	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
29/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
22/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	13	5	D
17/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
03/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-4	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Uruguay Montevideo vs Colon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Colon FC win (43%). Probabilities: Uruguay Montevideo 26%, draw 30%, Colon FC 43%.

How many goals are expected in Uruguay Montevideo vs Colon FC?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Uruguay Montevideo 0.88 · Colon FC 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Uruguay Montevideo vs Colon FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.