Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 19/10, 21:15

Prediction: Braga vs Gil Vicente

Team pages: Braga · Gil Vicente

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Braga1.54

Gil Vicente0.64

1X2

59% 26% 15%

Braga Draw Gil Vicente

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Braga 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWLWDL

Gil Vicente 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDLLDW

Head-to-head

Braga 2–2–2 Gil Vicente (6 last)

Gil Vicente2-1Braga
Braga0-1Gil Vicente
Braga2-0Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente0-0Braga
Braga2-1Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente3-3Braga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Braga 1497 · Gil Vicente 1504

	Braga	Draw	Gil Vicente
Our model	58%	28%	14%
Market	59%	25%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Braga	Gil Vicente
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.3	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 20:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.59
X	3.70 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.99 ★
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.14

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 4.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:52 +11’	1.57	3.70	6.00
11:22 +5’	1.60▲	3.70	5.75▼
11:55 +5’	1.57▼	3.75▲	6.00▲
19:05 +2’	1.53▼	3.80▲	6.50▲
20:14 +5’	1.57▲	3.75▼	6.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:39 +43’	1.61	3.82	5.85
22:07 +37’	1.61▲	3.80▼	5.84▼
11:39 +21’	1.56▼	3.92▲	6.24▲
08:27 +49’	1.55▼	3.94▲	6.29▲
19:10 +38’	1.54▼	4.03▲	6.31▲
20:11 +8’	1.59▲	3.90▼	5.90▼
21:19 +46’	1.60▲	3.95▲	6.02▲
22:45 +19’	1.59▼	3.99▲	6.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Braga 2–2–2 Gil Vicente

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	2-1 HT 0-1	Braga
14/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	0-1 HT 0-1	Gil Vicente
09/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	2-0 HT 1-0	Gil Vicente
01/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	0-0 HT 0-0	Braga
16/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	2-1 HT 1-0	Gil Vicente
28/10/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	3-3 HT 1-0	Braga

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20	4	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	24	7	19
3	Sporting	8	5	3	0	20	9	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12	4	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
7	Alverca	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
8	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6	5	11
9	Braga	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	14	15	10
11	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
12	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	10	11	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	8	17	7
15	Guimaraes	8	1	2	5	5	10	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	9	18	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3	17	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4	12	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Braga	Gil Vicente
Sporting	1-3 L	0-3 L
Moreirense	2-2 D	1-0 W
Benfica	2-2 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Braga (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Braga

DDDDWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-3	5	2	L
20/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
14/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
31/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
16/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
11/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
03/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	5	6	D

Gil Vicente

DLLWWDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
19/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
13/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-3	0	5	L
06/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
30/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
24/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
09/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
16/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
11/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
03/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Braga vs Gil Vicente?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Braga win (59%). Probabilities: Braga 59%, draw 26%, Gil Vicente 15%.

How many goals are expected in Braga vs Gil Vicente?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Braga 1.54 · Gil Vicente 0.64), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Braga vs Gil Vicente?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.