Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 24/10, 19:00

Prediction: Alverca vs Arouca

Team pages: Alverca · Arouca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Alverca1.36

Arouca1.09

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Alverca Draw Arouca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alverca 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDLWWW

Arouca 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDLDW

Head-to-head

Alverca 1–1 Arouca (2 last)

Alverca2-1Arouca
Arouca1-0Alverca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alverca 1498 · Arouca 1548

	Alverca	Draw	Arouca
Our model	42%	30%	29%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arouca (rating 1498 vs 1548).
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alverca	Arouca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.16
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.71 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +4’	2.15	3.30	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +329’	2.16	3.13	3.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alverca 1–0–1 Arouca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Alverca	2-1 HT 1-0	Arouca
14/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-0 HT 0-0	Alverca

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20	4	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	24	7	19
3	Sporting	8	5	3	0	20	9	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12	4	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
7	Alverca	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
8	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6	5	11
9	Braga	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	14	15	10
11	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
12	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	10	11	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	8	17	7
15	Guimaraes	8	1	2	5	5	10	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	9	18	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3	17	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4	12	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alverca	Arouca
Santa Clara	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sporting	1-3 L	2-2 D
Estrela	2-2 D	1-0 W
FC Porto	0-2 L	0-2 L
Estoril	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Arouca (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alverca

DLLDLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
19/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
12/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-1	0	3	W
05/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
29/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
22/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
15/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
09/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
16/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
10/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

Arouca

WWWWLWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
19/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	2-2	2	9	D
13/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
07/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
16/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	5	7	W
08/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
11/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	3-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alverca vs Arouca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alverca win (42%). Probabilities: Alverca 42%, draw 29%, Arouca 29%.

How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Arouca?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Alverca 1.36 · Arouca 1.09), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Arouca?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.