Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 24/10, 21:30

Prediction: Gil Vicente vs FC Porto

Team pages: Gil Vicente · FC Porto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Gil Vicente0.64

FC Porto1.82

1X2

12% 23% 65%

Gil Vicente Draw FC Porto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gil Vicente 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDLLDW

FC Porto 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Gil Vicente 2–1–3 FC Porto (6 last)

Gil Vicente1-0FC Porto
FC Porto3-0Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente0-2FC Porto
Gil Vicente3-1FC Porto
FC Porto3-0Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente1-1FC Porto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gil Vicente 1495 · FC Porto 1585

	Gil Vicente	Draw	FC Porto
Our model	12%	24%	65%
Market	12%	22%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1495 vs 1585).
H2H favours FC Porto: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gil Vicente	FC Porto
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	3.5 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

17.50

X4.20

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +5’	7.50	4.20	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gil Vicente 2–1–3 FC Porto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Elite Club Friendlies	Gil Vicente	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Porto
26/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	3-0 HT 1-0	Gil Vicente
18/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Porto
19/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Porto
10/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	3-0 HT 1-0	Gil Vicente
25/02/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Porto

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20	4	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	24	7	19
3	Sporting	8	5	3	0	20	9	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12	4	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
7	Alverca	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
8	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6	5	11
9	Braga	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	14	15	10
11	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
12	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	10	11	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	8	17	7
15	Guimaraes	8	1	2	5	5	10	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	9	18	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3	17	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4	12	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gil Vicente	FC Porto
Moreirense	1-0 W	2-1 W
Maritimo	1-1 D	2-1 W
Benfica	1-3 L	3-1 W
Academico Viseu	0-1 L	3-0 W
Casa Pia	2-0 W	4-1 W
Rio Ave	1-0 W	2-0 W
Arouca	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gil Vicente

DLLWWDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
19/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
13/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-3	0	5	L
06/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
30/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
24/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
09/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
16/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
11/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
03/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

FC Porto

LWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
20/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	3	8	W
12/09	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	4-1	10	5	W
04/09	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
29/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-0	1	0	W
23/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
15/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
09/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
16/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gil Vicente vs FC Porto?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Porto win (65%). Probabilities: Gil Vicente 12%, draw 23%, FC Porto 65%.

How many goals are expected in Gil Vicente vs FC Porto?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Gil Vicente 0.64 · FC Porto 1.82), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gil Vicente vs FC Porto?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.