Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 25/10, 19:00

Prediction: Nacional vs Braga

Team pages: Nacional · Braga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Nacional0.92

Braga1.97

1X2

16% 24% 61%

Nacional Draw Braga

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLLLL

Braga 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Nacional 1–5 Braga (6 last)

Nacional1-2Braga
Braga4-2Nacional
Braga0-1Nacional
Braga1-0Nacional
Nacional0-3Braga
Nacional1-3Braga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional 1392 · Braga 1526

	Nacional	Draw	Braga
Our model	16%	23%	61%
Market	16%	24%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braga (rating 1392 vs 1526).
H2H favours Braga: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional	Braga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

16.00

X3.90

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 23:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.00▼	Bet365 6.00
X	4.10 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.04 ★
2	1.48 → 1.55▲	Pinn 1.57

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +2’	6.50	4.10	1.48
01:15 +2’	5.50▼	3.80▼	1.57▲
04:23 +3’	6.00▲	3.80	1.57
22:11 +1’	5.25▼	3.70▼	1.67▲
23:16 +8’	6.00▲	3.90▲	1.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +5’	6.08	4.14	1.51
23:06 +11’	5.75▼	4.04▼	1.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional 1–0–5 Braga

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	1-2 HT 0-1	Braga
23/11/25 Portugal Cup	Braga	4-2 HT 3-0	Nacional
28/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	0-1 HT 0-1	Nacional
21/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	1-0 HT 1-0	Nacional
20/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	0-3 HT 0-0	Braga
22/12/23 Portugal League Cup	Nacional	1-3 HT 0-3	Braga

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20	4	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	24	7	19
3	Sporting	8	5	3	0	20	9	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12	4	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Gil Vicente	8	4	2	2	8	6	14
7	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
8	Braga	8	3	2	3	9	10	11
9	Alverca	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	14	15	10
11	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
12	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	10	11	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	8	17	7
15	Guimaraes	8	1	2	5	5	10	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	9	18	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3	17	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4	12	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional	Braga
Alverca	1-3 L	2-1 W
Sporting	0-2 L	1-3 L
Estrela	2-3 L	1-2 L
Guimaraes	0-1 L	1-0 W
Estoril	2-0 W	1-0 W
Santa Clara	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Braga (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional

LWDWLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-3	8	4	L
19/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	0-4	7	6	L
12/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-3	2	3	L
05/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
30/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
23/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
16/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
10/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
11/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L

Braga

DDDWWLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
09/10	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-3	5	2	L
20/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
14/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
31/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
16/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
11/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional vs Braga?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Braga win (61%). Probabilities: Nacional 16%, draw 24%, Braga 61%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional vs Braga?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Nacional 0.92 · Braga 1.97), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional vs Braga?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.