Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 25/10, 19:00

Prediction: Rio Ave vs Famalicao

Team pages: Rio Ave · Famalicao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Rio Ave0.93

Famalicao1.36

1X2

25% 30% 46%

Rio Ave Draw Famalicao

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Rio Ave 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLDLW

Famalicao 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDDDWL

Head-to-head

Rio Ave 0–4–2 Famalicao (6 last)

Rio Ave0-0Famalicao
Famalicao0-0Rio Ave
Famalicao1-0Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-1Famalicao
Famalicao2-1Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-1Famalicao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rio Ave 1473 · Famalicao 1469

	Rio Ave	Draw	Famalicao
Our model	24%	30%	45%
Market	25%	29%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Famalicao: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rio Ave	Famalicao
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.5	3.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
X	3.40 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.31 ★
2	1.90 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.07

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +2’	4.00	3.40	1.90
07:09 +4’	3.75▼	3.25▼	2.00▲
04:23 +3’	3.80▲	3.20▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:02 +262’	3.79	3.34	2.05
10:45 +37’	3.78▼	3.35▲	2.05
09:09 +8’	3.78	3.31▼	2.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rio Ave 0–4–2 Famalicao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	0-0 HT 0-0	Famalicao
28/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	0-0 HT 0-0	Rio Ave
10/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	1-0 HT 1-0	Rio Ave
04/10/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-1 HT 0-0	Famalicao
16/02/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	2-1 HT 1-1	Rio Ave
16/09/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-1 HT 0-1	Famalicao

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20	4	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	24	7	19
3	Sporting	8	5	3	0	20	9	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12	4	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Gil Vicente	8	4	2	2	8	6	14
7	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
8	Braga	8	3	2	3	9	10	11
9	Alverca	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	14	15	10
11	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
12	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	10	11	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	8	17	7
15	Guimaraes	8	1	2	5	5	10	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	9	18	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3	17	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4	12	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rio Ave	Famalicao
Nacional	3-2 W	4-0 W
Alverca	0-1 L	1-4 L
Estrela	3-3 D	2-2 D
Santa Clara	0-4 L	0-1 L
Sporting	0-4 L	1-1 D
Estoril	2-0 W	1-1 D
Gil Vicente	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Famalicao (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rio Ave

LDLLWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
19/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
14/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
06/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
28/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-4	0-4	2	2	L
22/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
15/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
09/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
16/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	0	1	D
11/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	5	7	L

Famalicao

DWDLLDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-4	8	5	L
19/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	3	6	W
13/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
30/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
23/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
07/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
16/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
11/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rio Ave vs Famalicao?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Famalicao win (46%). Probabilities: Rio Ave 25%, draw 30%, Famalicao 46%.

How many goals are expected in Rio Ave vs Famalicao?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Rio Ave 0.93 · Famalicao 1.36), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Famalicao?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.