Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 25/10, 16:30
Prediction: Estoril vs Moreirense
Team pages: Estoril · Moreirense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Estoril1.45
Moreirense0.98
1X2
Estoril
Draw
Moreirense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Estoril
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Moreirense
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estoril
0–3–3
Moreirense
(6 last)
- Moreirense1-0Estoril
- Estoril3-3Moreirense
- Moreirense2-2Estoril
- Estoril2-2Moreirense
- Moreirense2-1Estoril
- Estoril1-3Moreirense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estoril 1411 · Moreirense 1460
| Estoril | Draw | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moreirense (rating 1411 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Moreirense: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estoril | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.5 | 1.6 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estoril 0–3–3 Moreirense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Estoril |
| 07/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estoril | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Moreirense |
| 11/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Estoril |
| 28/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estoril | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Moreirense |
| 18/05/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Estoril |
| 13/01/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estoril | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Moreirense |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| 8 | Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 9 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 12 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estoril | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Braga | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Arouca | 0-0 D | 0-4 L |
| Benfica | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estoril
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/09 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 07/09 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 31/08 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/08 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Moreirense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/09 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 14/09 | Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 11/05 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estoril vs Moreirense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Estoril win (48%). Probabilities: Estoril 48%, draw 27%, Moreirense 25%.
How many goals are expected in Estoril vs Moreirense?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Estoril 1.45 · Moreirense 0.98), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Moreirense?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.