Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 10/10, 22:00

Prediction: Gualaceo SC vs Cumbaya

Team pages: Gualaceo SC · Cumbaya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Gualaceo SC1.25

Cumbaya0.87

1X2

44% 31% 25%

Gualaceo SC Draw Cumbaya

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gualaceo SC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWWDWW

Cumbaya 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDDLDLLWW

Head-to-head

Gualaceo SC 4–1–1 Cumbaya (6 last)

Cumbaya0-1Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC1-0Cumbaya
Cumbaya1-1Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC2-0Cumbaya
Cumbaya0-2Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC0-3Cumbaya

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gualaceo SC 1539 · Cumbaya 1498

	Gualaceo SC	Draw	Cumbaya
Our model	44%	32%	25%
Market	45%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gualaceo SC (rating 1539 vs 1498).
H2H favours Gualaceo SC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gualaceo SC	Cumbaya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/75/0%	13/75/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 19:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	3.20 → 3.50▲	Pinn 4.20 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:26 +6’	2.15	2.90	3.20
14:43 +10’	2.05▼	2.90	3.40▲
19:30 +21’	2.00▼	3.00▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:28 +40’	2.10	2.98	3.57
14:48 +4’	1.83▼	3.08▲	4.55▲
18:03 +108’	1.95▲	2.94▼	4.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gualaceo SC 4–1–1 Cumbaya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	0-1 HT 0-0	Gualaceo SC
10/06/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Gualaceo SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Cumbaya
08/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	1-1	Gualaceo SC
08/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Gualaceo SC	2-0 HT 0-0	Cumbaya
30/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	0-2 HT 0-1	Gualaceo SC
19/09/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Gualaceo SC	0-3 HT 0-0	Cumbaya

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LDU Portoviejo	29	10	10	9	27	28	40
2	Gualaceo SC	28	12	9	7	31	18	39
3	CD Vargas Torres	29	10	11	8	28	21	38
4	Cumbaya	28	7	12	9	33	29	33
5	El Nacional	29	4	6	19	25	46	15
6	22 de Julio	29	4	4	21	17	58	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gualaceo SC	Cumbaya
22 de Julio	4-2 W	7-1 W
CD Vargas Torres	1-0 W	1-2 L
LDU Portoviejo	0-0 D	0-0 D
El Nacional	3-0 W	3-0 W
CD Cuenca Jrs	3-0 W	0-0 D
Atletico FC Guayaquil	0-0 D	0-3 L
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gualaceo SC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gualaceo SC

DLLDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	4-2	–	–	W
27/09	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
19/09	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
10/09	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
29/08	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	5	7	W
20/08	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
15/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
06/08	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
24/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Cumbaya

DDDDLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	3-0	4	5	W
17/09	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	7-1	–	–	W
10/09	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
04/09	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
26/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-3	0-3	5	3	L
13/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
08/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
30/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
22/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gualaceo SC vs Cumbaya?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gualaceo SC win (44%). Probabilities: Gualaceo SC 44%, draw 31%, Cumbaya 25%.

How many goals are expected in Gualaceo SC vs Cumbaya?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Gualaceo SC 1.25 · Cumbaya 0.87), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gualaceo SC vs Cumbaya?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.