Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 15/10, 21:00

Prediction: Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Independiente Juniors

Team pages: Atletico FC Guayaquil · Independiente Juniors

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Atletico FC Guayaquil1.22

Independiente Juniors0.76

1X2

47% 31% 23%

Atletico FC Guayaquil Draw Independiente Juniors

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico FC Guayaquil 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWDWWW

Independiente Juniors 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLDLWW

Head-to-head

Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–3–0 Independiente Juniors (3 last)

Independiente Juniors1-1Atletico FC Guayaquil
Independiente Juniors0-0Atletico FC Guayaquil
Atletico FC Guayaquil1-1Independiente Juniors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1548 · Independiente Juniors 1521

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Draw	Independiente Juniors
Our model	46%	33%	22%
Market	47%	29%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Independiente Juniors
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.1	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.6	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.10

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 20:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.90▼	Pinn 2.01
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.80▲	Pinn 5.03 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +11’	2.10	3.10	3.10
13:49 +15’	2.10	3.00▼	3.25▲
16:02 +2’	2.05▼	3.00	3.40▲
20:33 +2’	1.90▼	3.10▲	3.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:22 +41’	2.44	2.38	3.82
10:22 +41’	2.22▼	2.44▲	4.30▲
11:50 +14’	2.20▼	2.49▲	4.25▼
13:00 +4’	2.13▼	2.54▲	4.37▲
13:22 +41’	2.15▲	2.51▼	4.39▲
17:01 +1’	2.15	2.51	4.37▼
17:23 +39’	2.16▲	2.51	4.34▼
19:00 +6’	2.18▲	2.54▲	4.43▲
20:32 +3’	2.01▼	2.63▲	5.03▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–3–0 Independiente Juniors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Independiente Juniors	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico FC Guayaquil
11/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Independiente Juniors	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico FC Guayaquil
22/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Atletico FC Guayaquil	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Juniors

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico FC Guayaquil	29	13	13	3	36	19	52
2	Independiente Juniors	29	13	11	5	36	23	50
3	Vinotinto Ecuador	29	13	9	7	37	22	48
4	Club 9 de Octubre	29	11	12	6	31	21	45
5	CD Cuenca Jrs	29	10	9	10	23	32	39
6	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	29	7	12	10	27	34	33

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Independiente Juniors
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	2-1 W	0-0 D
Club 9 de Octubre	1-0 W	1-0 W
CD Cuenca Jrs	2-0 W	2-0 W
Vinotinto Ecuador	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico FC Guayaquil (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico FC Guayaquil

LDWLDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
03/10	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
24/09	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/09	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-1	0	8	D
10/09	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
04/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-2	4	13	D
27/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
20/08	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	3-0	3-0	1	3	W
15/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Independiente Juniors

WDDDWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/10	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
24/09	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	2-3	4	8	L
17/09	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	1-3	1	6	L
04/09	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/08	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
20/08	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/08	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Independiente Juniors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico FC Guayaquil win (47%). Probabilities: Atletico FC Guayaquil 47%, draw 31%, Independiente Juniors 23%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Independiente Juniors?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Atletico FC Guayaquil 1.22 · Independiente Juniors 0.76), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Independiente Juniors?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.