Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 25/10, 01:00

Prediction: San Marcos FC vs Matagalpa FC

Team pages: San Marcos FC · Matagalpa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

San Marcos FC1.62

Matagalpa FC1.22

1X2

46% 26% 28%

San Marcos FC Draw Matagalpa FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

San Marcos FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Matagalpa FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

San Marcos FC 0–2 Matagalpa FC (2 last)

Matagalpa FC1-0San Marcos FC
Matagalpa FC4-1San Marcos FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Marcos FC 1450 · Matagalpa FC 1426

	San Marcos FC	Draw	Matagalpa FC
Our model	46%	27%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Matagalpa FC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Marcos FC	Matagalpa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	0.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	2.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.6	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +14’	1.95	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Marcos FC 0–0–2 Matagalpa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	1-0 HT 1-0	San Marcos FC
09/05/21 Nicaragua Segunda Division	Matagalpa FC	4-1 HT 0-1	San Marcos FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	13	11	2	0	41	13	35
2	Diriangen	13	9	3	1	26	13	30
3	UNAN Managua	13	7	3	3	17	13	24
4	Real Esteli	13	6	4	3	23	12	22
5	CD Walter Ferretti	13	5	2	6	26	22	17
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	12	5	2	5	14	21	17
7	San Marcos FC	13	3	2	8	14	22	11
8	Matagalpa FC	12	3	0	9	7	29	9
9	Jalapa	13	2	3	8	11	19	9
10	Rancho Santana FC	13	1	3	9	9	24	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Marcos FC	Matagalpa FC
UNAN Managua	2-3 L	1-0 W
Managua FC	2-3 L	1-4 L
Diriangen	1-2 L	0-3 L
Jalapa	3-1 W	1-0 W
Real Esteli	0-2 L	1-4 L
CD Walter Ferretti	1-0 W	1-5 L
Rancho Santana FC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: San Marcos FC (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Marcos FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-2	2-3	6	8	L
15/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	2-3	6	4	L
12/10	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
07/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
06/09	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
03/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
31/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
24/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
16/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
10/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	6	5	L

Matagalpa FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
15/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-5	–	–	L
11/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-3	1-4	0	0	L
07/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
04/09	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
30/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-4	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Marcos FC vs Matagalpa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Marcos FC win (46%). Probabilities: San Marcos FC 46%, draw 26%, Matagalpa FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in San Marcos FC vs Matagalpa FC?

The model expects 2.84 goals (San Marcos FC 1.62 · Matagalpa FC 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in San Marcos FC vs Matagalpa FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.