Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 25/10, 22:00

Prediction: Jalapa vs UNAN Managua

Team pages: Jalapa · UNAN Managua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Jalapa1.48

UNAN Managua1.18

1X2

43% 27% 29%

Jalapa Draw UNAN Managua

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Jalapa 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLDLDW

UNAN Managua 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Jalapa 2–1–3 UNAN Managua (6 last)

UNAN Managua2-1Jalapa
UNAN Managua2-4Jalapa
Jalapa0-0UNAN Managua
Jalapa5-0UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua5-1Jalapa
UNAN Managua2-0Jalapa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jalapa 1466 · UNAN Managua 1517

	Jalapa	Draw	UNAN Managua
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UNAN Managua (rating 1466 vs 1517).
H2H favours UNAN Managua: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jalapa	UNAN Managua
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.2	0.9 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.45 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +8’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:21 +29’	1.93	3.37	3.44
01:17 +7’	1.93	3.34▼	3.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jalapa 2–1–3 UNAN Managua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	UNAN Managua	2-1 HT 0-0	Jalapa
09/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	2-4 HT 1-3	Jalapa
09/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	0-0 HT 0-0	UNAN Managua
23/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	5-0 HT 3-0	UNAN Managua
10/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	UNAN Managua	5-1 HT 2-0	Jalapa
05/03/25 Nicaragua Cup	UNAN Managua	2-0 HT 1-0	Jalapa

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	13	11	2	0	41	13	35
2	Diriangen	13	9	3	1	26	13	30
3	UNAN Managua	13	7	3	3	17	13	24
4	Real Esteli	13	6	4	3	23	12	22
5	CD Walter Ferretti	14	6	2	6	30	23	20
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	12	5	2	5	14	21	17
7	San Marcos FC	14	3	3	8	14	22	12
8	Matagalpa FC	13	3	1	9	7	29	10
9	Jalapa	13	2	3	8	11	19	9
10	Rancho Santana FC	14	1	3	10	10	28	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jalapa	UNAN Managua
HYH Export Sebaco FC	4-1 W	3-1 W
Real Esteli	1-1 D	1-0 W
Managua FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
CD Walter Ferretti	2-2 D	1-0 W
San Marcos FC	1-3 L	3-2 W
Rancho Santana FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Diriangen	0-2 L	1-3 L
Matagalpa FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: UNAN Managua (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jalapa

LLLLDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
16/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
11/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
04/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
06/09	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-3	0	4	L
03/09	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	0	0	D
30/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
23/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
17/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
09/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	11	L

UNAN Managua

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	3-2	0	8	W
15/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	0	9	L
12/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
08/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
06/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	1	6	W
04/09	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
31/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
24/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
17/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
10/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jalapa vs UNAN Managua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jalapa win (43%). Probabilities: Jalapa 43%, draw 27%, UNAN Managua 29%.

How many goals are expected in Jalapa vs UNAN Managua?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Jalapa 1.48 · UNAN Managua 1.18), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Jalapa vs UNAN Managua?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.