Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 26/10, 00:00

Prediction: Diriangen vs HYH Export Sebaco FC

Team pages: Diriangen · HYH Export Sebaco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Diriangen2.13

HYH Export Sebaco FC0.94

1X2

64% 21% 15%

Diriangen Draw HYH Export Sebaco FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Diriangen 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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HYH Export Sebaco FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Diriangen 3–1–2 HYH Export Sebaco FC (6 last)

HYH Export Sebaco FC0-1Diriangen
HYH Export Sebaco FC1-1Diriangen
Diriangen1-2HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC0-2Diriangen
Diriangen0-1HYH Export Sebaco FC
Diriangen5-0HYH Export Sebaco FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Diriangen 1593 · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1456

	Diriangen	Draw	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Our model	64%	22%	15%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diriangen (rating 1593 vs 1456).
H2H favours Diriangen: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Diriangen	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 4.8	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.6	5.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	5.25 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.52
2	8.50 → 6.00▼	Pinn 6.29 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:07 +34’	1.22	5.25	8.50
02:12 +9’	1.25▲	5.00▼	8.00▼
07:09 +6’	1.33▲	4.50▼	7.00▼
11:10 +6’	1.42▲	4.33▼	5.75▼
12:19 +12’	1.40▼	4.33	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:18 +6’	1.38	4.52	6.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Diriangen 3–1–2 HYH Export Sebaco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/09/26 Nicaragua Apertura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Diriangen
12/07/26 Nicaragua Cup	HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Diriangen
05/07/26 Nicaragua Cup	Diriangen	1-2 HT 1-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
16/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Diriangen
16/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Diriangen	0-1 HT 0-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
07/12/25 Nicaragua Liga Primera Play-Offs	Diriangen	5-0 HT 1-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	13	11	2	0	41	13	35
2	Diriangen	13	9	3	1	26	13	30
3	UNAN Managua	13	7	3	3	17	13	24
4	Real Esteli	13	6	4	3	23	12	22
5	CD Walter Ferretti	14	6	2	6	30	23	20
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	12	5	2	5	14	21	17
7	San Marcos FC	14	3	3	8	14	22	12
8	Matagalpa FC	13	3	1	9	7	29	10
9	Jalapa	13	2	3	8	11	19	9
10	Rancho Santana FC	14	1	3	10	10	28	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Diriangen	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Rancho Santana FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
UNAN Managua	3-1 W	1-3 L
CD Walter Ferretti	2-4 L	1-1 D
San Marcos FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Managua FC	3-3 D	1-6 L
Jalapa	2-0 W	1-4 L
Real Esteli	2-0 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Diriangen (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Diriangen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
15/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-1	4	9	W
11/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-4	5	4	L
07/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
10/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
07/09	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
04/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-2	3-3	2	9	D
30/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	6	W

HYH Export Sebaco FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
15/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
10/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
06/09	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
02/09	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
30/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	3	5	L
23/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-5	1-6	2	4	L
09/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	11	W
02/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Diriangen vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Diriangen win (64%). Probabilities: Diriangen 64%, draw 21%, HYH Export Sebaco FC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Diriangen vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Diriangen 2.13 · HYH Export Sebaco FC 0.94), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Diriangen vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.