Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 26/10, 02:00

Prediction: Real Esteli vs Managua FC

Team pages: Real Esteli · Managua FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Real Esteli1.68

Managua FC1.41

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Real Esteli Draw Managua FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Esteli 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDLWDL

Managua FC 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Real Esteli 3–1–2 Managua FC (6 last)

Managua FC1-1Real Esteli
Real Esteli2-1Managua FC
Managua FC0-2Real Esteli
Managua FC0-2Real Esteli
Real Esteli0-2Managua FC
Managua FC2-1Real Esteli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Esteli 1526 · Managua FC 1585

	Real Esteli	Draw	Managua FC
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Managua FC (rating 1526 vs 1585).
H2H favours Real Esteli: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Esteli	Managua FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	3.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.13
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.45 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.08 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:20 +21’	2.45	3.30	2.45
02:53 +27’	2.38▼	3.30	2.50▲
07:13 +3’	2.10▼	3.30	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:13 +67’	2.13	3.21	3.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Esteli 3–1–2 Managua FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/09/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Esteli
09/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	2-1 HT 0-1	Managua FC
08/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Real Esteli
07/12/25 Nicaragua Liga Primera Play-Offs	Managua FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Real Esteli
01/12/25 Nicaragua Liga Primera Play-Offs	Real Esteli	0-2 HT 0-0	Managua FC
23/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Real Esteli

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	13	11	2	0	41	13	35
2	Diriangen	13	9	3	1	26	13	30
3	UNAN Managua	13	7	3	3	17	13	24
4	Real Esteli	13	6	4	3	23	12	22
5	CD Walter Ferretti	14	6	2	6	30	23	20
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	12	5	2	5	14	21	17
7	San Marcos FC	14	3	3	8	14	22	12
8	Matagalpa FC	13	3	1	9	7	29	10
9	Jalapa	13	2	3	8	11	19	9
10	Rancho Santana FC	14	1	3	10	10	28	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Esteli	Managua FC
CD Walter Ferretti	1-3 L	3-2 W
Jalapa	1-1 D	1-0 W
Matagalpa FC	4-1 W	4-1 W
UNAN Managua	0-1 L	2-0 W
Rancho Santana FC	1-1 D	6-1 W
San Marcos FC	2-0 W	3-2 W
HYH Export Sebaco FC	5-0 W	6-1 W
Diriangen	0-2 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Managua FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Esteli

WLWWDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-3	8	8	L
16/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
11/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	3-0	4-1	2	0	W
08/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
11/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
06/09	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
03/09	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
30/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	5-0	3	5	W
23/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
08/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	5	3	W

Managua FC

WWWDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	4-1	9	4	W
15/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-2	3-2	5	4	W
11/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	0	0	W
03/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	6-1	5	6	W
11/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
07/09	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-2	3-2	5	7	W
04/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	2-2	3-3	8	9	D
31/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	10	4	W
23/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	5-0	6-1	1	4	W
10/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Esteli vs Managua FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Esteli win (43%). Probabilities: Real Esteli 43%, draw 26%, Managua FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Real Esteli vs Managua FC?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Real Esteli 1.68 · Managua FC 1.41), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Esteli vs Managua FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.