Football · Colombia Primera B · 19/10, 23:00

Prediction: Internacional FC de Palmira vs Union Magdalena

Team pages: Internacional FC de Palmira · Union Magdalena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Internacional FC de Palmira1.24

Union Magdalena0.9

1X2

43% 30% 27%

Internacional FC de Palmira Draw Union Magdalena

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional FC de Palmira 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWLDD

Union Magdalena 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWDDD

Head-to-head

Internacional FC de Palmira 2–1–3 Union Magdalena (6 last)

Union Magdalena0-2Internacional FC de Palmira
Union Magdalena1-0Internacional FC de Palmira
Internacional FC de Palmira0-2Union Magdalena
Internacional FC de Palmira1-2Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena0-2Internacional FC de Palmira
Internacional FC de Palmira1-1Union Magdalena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional FC de Palmira 1506 · Union Magdalena 1495

	Internacional FC de Palmira	Draw	Union Magdalena
Our model	43%	32%	26%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Magdalena: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional FC de Palmira	Union Magdalena
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.06
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.21
2	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.55 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +10’	2.10	3.20	3.40
17:48 +7’	2.05▼	3.20	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:39 +76’	2.06	3.21	3.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional FC de Palmira 2–1–3 Union Magdalena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Colombia Primera B	Union Magdalena	0-2 HT 0-2	Internacional FC de Palmira
21/09/24 Colombia Primera B	Union Magdalena	1-0 HT 1-0	Internacional FC de Palmira
19/04/24 Colombia Primera B	Internacional FC de Palmira	0-2 HT 0-1	Union Magdalena
10/09/22 Colombia Primera A	Internacional FC de Palmira	1-2 HT 1-0	Union Magdalena
18/03/22 Colombia Primera A	Union Magdalena	0-2 HT 0-1	Internacional FC de Palmira
10/03/22 Colombia Primera B	Internacional FC de Palmira	1-1 HT 1-1	Union Magdalena

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Valle del Cauca	13	7	4	2	17	8	25
2	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	13	7	3	3	19	11	24
3	Tigres FC	13	6	5	2	16	7	23
4	Boca Juniors De Cali	13	5	3	5	18	16	18
5	Patriotas FC	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
6	Atletico Cali FC	13	5	3	5	16	19	18
7	Real Cartagena	13	4	5	4	22	17	17
8	Deportes Quindio	13	4	5	4	11	13	17
9	Real San Andres	13	3	7	3	15	19	16
10	Internacional FC de Palmira	13	4	4	5	10	14	16
11	Envigado FC	13	2	8	3	14	13	14
12	Union Magdalena	13	3	5	5	13	15	14
13	Orsomarso	13	3	5	5	9	12	14
14	Bogota FC	13	3	5	5	9	13	14
15	Itagui Leones	13	3	5	5	11	19	14
16	Barranquilla FC	13	3	4	6	17	20	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional FC de Palmira	Union Magdalena
Envigado FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Itagui Leones	1-0 W	2-2 D
Independiente Valle del Cauca	1-0 W	1-1 D
Real Cartagena	2-1 W	1-1 D
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	0-2 L	1-2 L
Real San Andres	1-3 L	3-1 W
Barranquilla FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional FC de Palmira (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional FC de Palmira

WLLLWWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
11/10	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
04/10	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
28/09	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/09	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
13/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
09/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
04/09	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-3	2	4	L
25/08	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

Union Magdalena

LWLLWDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
12/10	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	2-0	2-2	4	1	D
08/10	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
03/10	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
30/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
19/09	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	4	9	W
13/09	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
06/09	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	10	4	L
01/09	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
29/08	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Union Magdalena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional FC de Palmira win (43%). Probabilities: Internacional FC de Palmira 43%, draw 30%, Union Magdalena 27%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Union Magdalena?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Internacional FC de Palmira 1.24 · Union Magdalena 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Union Magdalena?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.