Football · Colombia Primera B · 24/10, 22:30
Prediction: Patriotas FC vs Envigado FC
Team pages: Patriotas FC · Envigado FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Patriotas FC1.21
Envigado FC1.11
1X2
Patriotas FC
Draw
Envigado FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Patriotas FC
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Envigado FC
2-7-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Patriotas FC
1–2–3
Envigado FC
(6 last)
- Envigado FC2-0Patriotas FC
- Patriotas FC2-0Envigado FC
- Envigado FC1-0Patriotas FC
- Envigado FC3-2Patriotas FC
- Patriotas FC0-0Envigado FC
- Patriotas FC0-0Envigado FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patriotas FC 1449 · Envigado FC 1516
| Patriotas FC | Draw | Envigado FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | 38% | 30% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Envigado FC (rating 1449 vs 1516).
- H2H favours Envigado FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Patriotas FC | Envigado FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.3 | 5.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Patriotas FC 1–2–3 Envigado FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Colombia Primera B | Envigado FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Patriotas FC |
| 07/09/24 Colombia Primera A | Patriotas FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Envigado FC |
| 27/02/24 Colombia Primera A | Envigado FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Patriotas FC |
| 07/10/22 Colombia Primera A | Envigado FC | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Patriotas FC |
| 19/04/22 Colombia Primera A | Patriotas FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Envigado FC |
| 11/09/21 Colombia Primera A | Patriotas FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Envigado FC |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 28 |
| 2 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tigres FC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 20 |
| 5 | Deportes Quindio | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Real San Andres | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 19 |
| 7 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 18 |
| 8 | Patriotas FC | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 18 |
| 9 | Atletico Cali FC | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 18 |
| 10 | Envigado FC | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| 11 | Union Magdalena | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 12 | Bogota FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 17 |
| 13 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 16 |
| 14 | Orsomarso | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | Itagui Leones | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 14 |
| 16 | Barranquilla FC | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Patriotas FC | Envigado FC |
|---|---|---|
| Real Cartagena | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Itagui Leones | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Bogota FC | 0-0 D | 3-3 D |
| Boca Juniors De Cali | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Union Magdalena | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Barranquilla FC | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Envigado FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patriotas FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/10 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 11/10 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
0-3 | 1-4 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 14/09 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 11/09 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
Envigado FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 15/10 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/10 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 06/10 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
2-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/10 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 27/09 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 22/09 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 12/09 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 01/09 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patriotas FC vs Envigado FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Patriotas FC win (37%). Probabilities: Patriotas FC 37%, draw 30%, Envigado FC 32%.
How many goals are expected in Patriotas FC vs Envigado FC?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Patriotas FC 1.21 · Envigado FC 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Patriotas FC vs Envigado FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.