Football · Colombia Primera B · 20/10, 01:00

Prediction: Real Cartagena vs Patriotas FC

Team pages: Real Cartagena · Patriotas FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Real Cartagena1.43

Patriotas FC1.08

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Real Cartagena Draw Patriotas FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Cartagena 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDDLDD

Patriotas FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLLLDL

Head-to-head

Real Cartagena 0–2–4 Patriotas FC (6 last)

Patriotas FC1-0Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena0-1Patriotas FC
Patriotas FC2-2Real Cartagena
Patriotas FC3-1Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena1-3Patriotas FC
Patriotas FC0-0Real Cartagena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Cartagena 1484 · Patriotas FC 1491

	Real Cartagena	Draw	Patriotas FC
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Patriotas FC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Cartagena	Patriotas FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +11’	2.05	3.40	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Cartagena 0–2–4 Patriotas FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Colombia Primera B	Patriotas FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena
20/11/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	0-1 HT 0-1	Patriotas FC
08/11/25 Colombia Primera B	Patriotas FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Real Cartagena
16/09/25 Colombia Primera B	Patriotas FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Real Cartagena
17/04/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	1-3 HT 1-0	Patriotas FC
29/07/23 Colombia Primera B	Patriotas FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Valle del Cauca	13	7	4	2	17	8	25
2	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	13	7	3	3	19	11	24
3	Tigres FC	13	6	5	2	16	7	23
4	Boca Juniors De Cali	13	5	3	5	18	16	18
5	Patriotas FC	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
6	Atletico Cali FC	13	5	3	5	16	19	18
7	Real Cartagena	13	4	5	4	22	17	17
8	Deportes Quindio	13	4	5	4	11	13	17
9	Real San Andres	13	3	7	3	15	19	16
10	Internacional FC de Palmira	13	4	4	5	10	14	16
11	Envigado FC	13	2	8	3	14	13	14
12	Union Magdalena	13	3	5	5	13	15	14
13	Orsomarso	13	3	5	5	9	12	14
14	Bogota FC	13	3	5	5	9	13	14
15	Itagui Leones	13	3	5	5	11	19	14
16	Barranquilla FC	13	3	4	6	17	20	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Cartagena	Patriotas FC
Deportes Quindio	1-1 D	2-1 W
Atletico Cali FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Boca Juniors De Cali	2-3 L	1-4 L
Union Magdalena	1-1 D	1-2 L
Tigres FC	0-3 L	1-0 W
Itagui Leones	6-1 W	0-1 L
Bogota FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Real Cartagena (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Cartagena

WWLWLDDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
08/10	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
04/10	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-2	2-3	10	5	L
30/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
22/09	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
13/09	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
05/09	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
30/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
25/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	4-1	6-1	3	5	W
21/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	10	W

Patriotas FC

WLWWWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
11/10	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
03/10	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
27/09	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-3	1-4	11	7	L
19/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	6	9	L
14/09	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-1	1	9	W
11/09	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	2-0	3-1	8	3	W
07/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
29/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-4	1	5	L
25/08	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Cartagena vs Patriotas FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Cartagena win (44%). Probabilities: Real Cartagena 44%, draw 28%, Patriotas FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Real Cartagena vs Patriotas FC?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Real Cartagena 1.43 · Patriotas FC 1.08), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Cartagena vs Patriotas FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.