Football · Colombia Primera B · 20/10, 00:00

Prediction: Orsomarso vs Bogota FC

Team pages: Orsomarso · Bogota FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

Orsomarso1.14

Bogota FC0.86

1X2

42% 32% 27%

Orsomarso Draw Bogota FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Orsomarso 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLDLWD

Bogota FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLDDD

Head-to-head

Orsomarso 3–2–1 Bogota FC (6 last)

Bogota FC2-0Orsomarso
Orsomarso1-1Bogota FC
Bogota FC2-2Orsomarso
Bogota FC2-3Orsomarso
Orsomarso2-0Bogota FC
Orsomarso2-0Bogota FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orsomarso 1453 · Bogota FC 1487

	Orsomarso	Draw	Bogota FC
Our model	41%	33%	26%
Market	42%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Orsomarso: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orsomarso	Bogota FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.4	1.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +10’	2.15	3.00	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orsomarso 3–2–1 Bogota FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Orsomarso
16/07/25 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	1-1 HT 0-0	Bogota FC
01/02/25 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Orsomarso
23/10/24 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	2-3 HT 2-1	Orsomarso
12/05/24 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	2-0 HT 1-0	Bogota FC
25/09/23 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	2-0 HT 0-0	Bogota FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Valle del Cauca	13	7	4	2	17	8	25
2	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	13	7	3	3	19	11	24
3	Tigres FC	13	6	5	2	16	7	23
4	Boca Juniors De Cali	13	5	3	5	18	16	18
5	Patriotas FC	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
6	Atletico Cali FC	13	5	3	5	16	19	18
7	Real Cartagena	13	4	5	4	22	17	17
8	Deportes Quindio	13	4	5	4	11	13	17
9	Real San Andres	13	3	7	3	15	19	16
10	Internacional FC de Palmira	13	4	4	5	10	14	16
11	Envigado FC	13	2	8	3	14	13	14
12	Union Magdalena	13	3	5	5	13	15	14
13	Orsomarso	13	3	5	5	9	12	14
14	Bogota FC	13	3	5	5	9	13	14
15	Itagui Leones	13	3	5	5	11	19	14
16	Barranquilla FC	13	3	4	6	17	20	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orsomarso	Bogota FC
Boca Juniors De Cali	1-0 W	2-1 W
Deportes Quindio	0-1 L	0-1 L
Envigado FC	0-0 D	3-3 D
Atletico Cali FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Tigres FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Real Cartagena	0-1 L	0-2 L
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orsomarso

WLLLDLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
12/10	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/10	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
01/10	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
28/09	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-1	3-4	5	6	L
22/09	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
11/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
05/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	12	9	L
25/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	2	6	W

Bogota FC

LWLLDWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
11/10	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
06/10	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-2	3-3	4	6	D
29/09	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
21/09	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
14/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
05/09	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	12	0	L
29/08	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	14	3	L
25/08	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	7	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orsomarso vs Bogota FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orsomarso win (42%). Probabilities: Orsomarso 42%, draw 32%, Bogota FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Orsomarso vs Bogota FC?

The model expects 2 goals (Orsomarso 1.14 · Bogota FC 0.86), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Orsomarso vs Bogota FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.