Football · England Northern Premier League · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC United of Manchester vs Lancaster City

Team pages: FC United of Manchester · Lancaster City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

FC United of Manchester1.67

Lancaster City1.37

1X2

44% 25% 31%

FC United of Manchester Draw Lancaster City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC United of Manchester 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Lancaster City 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDWLL

Head-to-head

FC United of Manchester 4–1–1 Lancaster City (6 last)

FC United of Manchester2-1Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-2FC United of Manchester
Lancaster City0-1FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester2-3Lancaster City
FC United of Manchester4-3Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-0FC United of Manchester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC United of Manchester 1469 · Lancaster City 1463

	FC United of Manchester	Draw	Lancaster City
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	44%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC United of Manchester: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC United of Manchester	Lancaster City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	13/50/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +9’	2.05	3.60	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC United of Manchester 4–1–1 Lancaster City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	2-1 HT 2-0	Lancaster City
12/08/25 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-2	FC United of Manchester
08/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-1	FC United of Manchester
12/10/24 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	2-3 HT 2-1	Lancaster City
27/04/24 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	4-3 HT 2-2	Lancaster City
11/11/23 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-0	FC United of Manchester

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	15	9	1	5	31	20	28
5	Avro FC	14	9	1	4	37	27	28
6	Curzon Ashton	14	8	1	5	27	17	25
7	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
8	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	25	21	23
10	Bury	12	7	1	4	27	14	22
11	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
12	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	20	29	20
13	Whitby	15	6	1	8	22	37	19
14	Emley AFC	15	4	5	6	16	26	17
15	Quorn	14	3	6	5	24	30	15
16	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17	18	14
18	Leek Town	14	3	5	6	29	31	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	FC United of Manchester	14	2	5	7	20	26	11
21	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
22	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC United of Manchester	Lancaster City
Emley AFC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Stockton Town	2-2 D	1-0 W
Warrington Town	4-1 W	2-2 D
Avro FC	3-4 L	3-5 L
Workington	1-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC United of Manchester (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC United of Manchester

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	10	2	D
13/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
10/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
12/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
31/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
29/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Lancaster City

WLLWWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
17/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	2	L
13/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
10/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	1	D
07/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-5	3	1	L
03/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Whitby England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
31/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC United of Manchester vs Lancaster City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC United of Manchester win (44%). Probabilities: FC United of Manchester 44%, draw 25%, Lancaster City 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC United of Manchester vs Lancaster City?

The model expects 3.04 goals (FC United of Manchester 1.67 · Lancaster City 1.37), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC United of Manchester vs Lancaster City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.