Football · England Northern Premier League · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Redcar Athletic vs Guiseley

Team pages: Redcar Athletic · Guiseley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Redcar Athletic1.64

Guiseley1.33

1X2

44% 25% 30%

Redcar Athletic Draw Guiseley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Redcar Athletic 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Guiseley 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Redcar Athletic 1570 · Guiseley 1639

	Redcar Athletic	Draw	Guiseley
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	45%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guiseley (rating 1570 vs 1639).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Redcar Athletic	Guiseley
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	71/14/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3	3.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +8’	2.00	3.60	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	15	9	1	5	31	20	28
5	Avro FC	14	9	1	4	37	27	28
6	Curzon Ashton	14	8	1	5	27	17	25
7	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
8	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	25	21	23
10	Bury	12	7	1	4	27	14	22
11	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
12	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	20	29	20
13	Whitby	15	6	1	8	22	37	19
14	Emley AFC	15	4	5	6	16	26	17
15	Quorn	14	3	6	5	24	30	15
16	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17	18	14
18	Leek Town	14	3	5	6	29	31	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	FC United of Manchester	14	2	5	7	20	26	11
21	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
22	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Redcar Athletic	Guiseley
Avro FC	3-1 W	1-0 W
Ilkeston	5-0 W	2-0 W
Curzon Ashton	1-3 L	2-1 W
Alfreton Town	3-1 W	0-1 L
Cleethorpes Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Stockton Town	2-0 W	3-0 W
Emley AFC	0-0 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guiseley (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Redcar Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
13/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
10/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
06/10	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
03/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
12/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	3-2	2	5	W
31/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Guiseley

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
10/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
06/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
29/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	4	5	W
28/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
25/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
22/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Redcar Athletic vs Guiseley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Redcar Athletic win (44%). Probabilities: Redcar Athletic 44%, draw 25%, Guiseley 30%.

How many goals are expected in Redcar Athletic vs Guiseley?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Redcar Athletic 1.64 · Guiseley 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Redcar Athletic vs Guiseley?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.