Football · England Northern Premier League · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Quorn vs Warrington Town

Team pages: Quorn · Warrington Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

Quorn1.9

Warrington Town1.92

1X2

38% 24% 39%

Quorn Draw Warrington Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Quorn 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWDWDD

Warrington Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDDWDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Quorn 1514 · Warrington Town 1503

	Quorn	Draw	Warrington Town
Our model	38%	23%	39%
Market	37%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Quorn	Warrington Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.70

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +8’	2.40	3.70	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	15	9	1	5	31	20	28
5	Avro FC	14	9	1	4	37	27	28
6	Curzon Ashton	14	8	1	5	27	17	25
7	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
8	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	25	21	23
10	Bury	12	7	1	4	27	14	22
11	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
12	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	20	29	20
13	Whitby	15	6	1	8	22	37	19
14	Emley AFC	15	4	5	6	16	26	17
15	Quorn	14	3	6	5	24	30	15
16	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17	18	14
18	Leek Town	14	3	5	6	29	31	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	FC United of Manchester	14	2	5	7	20	26	11
21	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
22	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Quorn	Warrington Town
FC United of Manchester	1-1 D	1-4 L
Workington	3-0 W	2-2 D
Bamber Bridge	4-2 W	1-0 W
Whitby	3-6 L	5-0 W
Gainsborough	2-2 D	1-2 L
Lancaster City	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Quorn (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Quorn

DDLWLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
13/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	0	8	D
10/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
03/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	7	1	W
12/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-6	–	–	L
25/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
22/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D

Warrington Town

WLDWLDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	9	0	L
17/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
13/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
06/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
01/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Quorn vs Warrington Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Warrington Town win (39%). Probabilities: Quorn 38%, draw 24%, Warrington Town 39%.

How many goals are expected in Quorn vs Warrington Town?

The model expects 3.81 goals (Quorn 1.9 · Warrington Town 1.92), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Quorn vs Warrington Town?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.