Football · Bulgaria First League · 10/10, 17:00

Prediction: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna

Team pages: Botev Vratsa · Spartak Varna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Botev Vratsa1.44

Spartak Varna1.05

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Botev Vratsa Draw Spartak Varna

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Botev Vratsa 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWLWDD

Spartak Varna 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLDDDL

Head-to-head

Botev Vratsa 2–3–1 Spartak Varna (6 last)

Botev Vratsa2-1Spartak Varna
Botev Vratsa2-0Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna1-1Botev Vratsa
Spartak Varna1-0Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa1-1Spartak Varna
Botev Vratsa1-1Spartak Varna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botev Vratsa 1474 · Spartak Varna 1453

	Botev Vratsa	Draw	Spartak Varna
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Botev Vratsa: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botev Vratsa	Spartak Varna
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.9	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	1.1 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 4.13 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:52 +3’	2.05	3.20	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +705’	1.98	3.10	4.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Vratsa 2–3–1 Spartak Varna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	2-1 HT 2-0	Spartak Varna
04/12/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	2-0 HT 0-0	Spartak Varna
01/08/25 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	1-1 HT 0-0	Botev Vratsa
01/04/25 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	1-0 HT 1-0	Botev Vratsa
13/09/24 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	1-1 HT 0-0	Spartak Varna
13/05/23 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	1-1 HT 0-1	Spartak Varna

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	21	4	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	24	7	24
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	9	7	2	0	16	7	23
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	10	7	1	2	19	10	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	15	12	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	16	14	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	9	8	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	10	15	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	9	19	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	8	18	8
11	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	10	1	4	5	11	18	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	5	13	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	11	20	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	10	19	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botev Vratsa	Spartak Varna
Levski Sofia	0-0 D	0-6 L
Septemvri Sofia	3-2 W	0-1 L
Botev Plovdiv	1-0 W	2-3 L
CSKA Sofia	0-5 L	1-1 D
Slavia Sofia	0-3 L	0-0 D
Ludogorets Razgrad	1-2 L	1-1 D
CSKA 1948 Sofia	1-2 L	2-2 D
Cherno More Varna	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Spartak Varna (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botev Vratsa

DLLLLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
13/09	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
04/09	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-2	2	3	W
31/08	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
24/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
16/08	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-5	5	5	L
10/08	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-3	7	5	L
02/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-2	1-2	2	3	L
25/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
19/07	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	5	7	D

Spartak Varna

DWWLLLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
13/09	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
05/09	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
22/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
17/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
10/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-3	2-3	1	2	L
03/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
26/07	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
17/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-2	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botev Vratsa win (45%). Probabilities: Botev Vratsa 45%, draw 29%, Spartak Varna 26%.

How many goals are expected in Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Botev Vratsa 1.44 · Spartak Varna 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.