Football · Bulgaria First League · 10/10, 17:00
Prediction: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Team pages: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1.27
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.98
1X2
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Draw
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
0–4–2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
(6 last)
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia2-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1446 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1467
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.1 | 1.7 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 5.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0–4–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 24/10/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 09/07/25 Europe Friendlies | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 02/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 23/02/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 01/09/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| CSKA Sofia | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Cherno More Varna | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Dunav Ruse | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Arda Kardzhali | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Levski Sofia | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Botev Plovdiv | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 5 L | 1 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 16/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 31/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 17/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/07 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 21/07 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 28/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 26/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win (42%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 42%, draw 30%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 28%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1.27 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.98), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.