Football · Bulgaria First League · 11/10, 16:30
Prediction: Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
Team pages: Cherno More Varna · Levski Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Cherno More Varna0.83
Levski Sofia1.9
1X2
Cherno More Varna
Draw
Levski Sofia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Cherno More Varna
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Levski Sofia
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cherno More Varna
2–1–3
Levski Sofia
(6 last)
- Levski Sofia2-1Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna1-3Levski Sofia
- Cherno More Varna0-0Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia2-0Cherno More Varna
- Levski Sofia1-2Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna1-0Levski Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cherno More Varna 1424 · Levski Sofia 1569
| Cherno More Varna | Draw | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 24% | 61% |
| Market | 15% | 24% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1424 vs 1569).
- H2H favours Levski Sofia: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cherno More Varna | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2 | 2.1 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5 | 2.4 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cherno More Varna 2–1–3 Levski Sofia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 19/10/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Levski Sofia |
| 26/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Levski Sofia |
| 10/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 13/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 26/02/25 Bulgaria Cup | Cherno More Varna | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Levski Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cherno More Varna | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Dunav Ruse | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Botev Plovdiv | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Spartak Varna | 0-3 L | 6-0 W |
| Botev Vratsa | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Levski Sofia (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 21/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
Levski Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/09 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 07/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 17/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Levski Sofia win (61%). Probabilities: Cherno More Varna 15%, draw 24%, Levski Sofia 61%.
How many goals are expected in Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Cherno More Varna 0.83 · Levski Sofia 1.9), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.