Football · Bulgaria First League · 10/10, 17:00
Prediction: Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
Team pages: Septemvri Sofia · Dunav Ruse
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.53Total
Septemvri Sofia1.45
Dunav Ruse1.08
1X2
Septemvri Sofia
Draw
Dunav Ruse
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Septemvri Sofia
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Dunav Ruse
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Septemvri Sofia
1–3–2
Dunav Ruse
(6 last)
- Septemvri Sofia1-2Dunav Ruse
- Dunav Ruse1-1Septemvri Sofia
- Septemvri Sofia2-3Dunav Ruse
- Dunav Ruse0-1Septemvri Sofia
- Septemvri Sofia1-1Dunav Ruse
- Dunav Ruse2-2Septemvri Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Septemvri Sofia 1450 · Dunav Ruse 1416
| Septemvri Sofia | Draw | Dunav Ruse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Dunav Ruse: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Septemvri Sofia | Dunav Ruse | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.6 | 1.7 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Septemvri Sofia 1–3–2 Dunav Ruse
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/24 Bulgaria Second League | Septemvri Sofia | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Dunav Ruse |
| 02/10/23 Bulgaria Second League | Dunav Ruse | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 22/05/19 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Dunav Ruse |
| 19/05/19 Bulgaria First League | Dunav Ruse | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 26/04/19 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Dunav Ruse |
| 08/04/19 Bulgaria First League | Dunav Ruse | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Septemvri Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Septemvri Sofia | Dunav Ruse |
|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Botev Vratsa | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Slavia Sofia | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| CSKA Sofia | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Levski Sofia | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Arda Kardzhali | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 1 W 1 D 6 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 14/09 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/09 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 23/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
Dunav Ruse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 07/09 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 31/08 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 21/08 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 17/07 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Septemvri Sofia win (45%). Probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 45%, draw 28%, Dunav Ruse 27%.
How many goals are expected in Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
The model expects 2.53 goals (Septemvri Sofia 1.45 · Dunav Ruse 1.08), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.