Football · Bulgaria First League · 10/10, 17:00
Prediction: Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Team pages: Botev Plovdiv · Slavia Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Botev Plovdiv1.54
Slavia Sofia0.77
1X2
Botev Plovdiv
Draw
Slavia Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Botev Plovdiv
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Slavia Sofia
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Botev Plovdiv
2–1–3
Slavia Sofia
(6 last)
- Slavia Sofia0-1Botev Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv1-1Slavia Sofia
- Slavia Sofia3-2Botev Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv1-0Slavia Sofia
- Slavia Sofia3-1Botev Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv0-1Slavia Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botev Plovdiv 1530 · Slavia Sofia 1492
| Botev Plovdiv | Draw | Slavia Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Slavia Sofia: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botev Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/90/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.7 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Plovdiv 2–1–3 Slavia Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 18/10/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Slavia Sofia |
| 03/03/25 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 19/10/24 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Slavia Sofia |
| 20/05/24 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 27/04/24 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Slavia Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Botev Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Arda Kardzhali | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Levski Sofia | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Botev Vratsa | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Spartak Varna | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| CSKA Sofia | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 5 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Slavia Sofia (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botev Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 04/09 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 10/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
3-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 21/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Slavia Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 07/09 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 02/09 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 22/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 10/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/07 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Botev Plovdiv win (55%). Probabilities: Botev Plovdiv 55%, draw 27%, Slavia Sofia 18%.
How many goals are expected in Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Botev Plovdiv 1.54 · Slavia Sofia 0.77), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.