Football · Bulgaria First League · 10/10, 17:00
Prediction: Ludogorets Razgrad vs Arda Kardzhali
Team pages: Ludogorets Razgrad · Arda Kardzhali
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Ludogorets Razgrad1.79
Arda Kardzhali0.82
1X2
Ludogorets Razgrad
Draw
Arda Kardzhali
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Ludogorets Razgrad
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Arda Kardzhali
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ludogorets Razgrad
2–2–2
Arda Kardzhali
(6 last)
- Arda Kardzhali1-0Ludogorets Razgrad
- Ludogorets Razgrad2-3Arda Kardzhali
- Ludogorets Razgrad2-2Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali1-1Ludogorets Razgrad
- Arda Kardzhali0-4Ludogorets Razgrad
- Ludogorets Razgrad5-1Arda Kardzhali
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ludogorets Razgrad 1549 · Arda Kardzhali 1514
| Ludogorets Razgrad | Draw | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ludogorets Razgrad | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 2 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ludogorets Razgrad 2–2–2 Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/26 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 09/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 26/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 09/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 04/12/24 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 03/08/24 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 5-1 HT 2-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ludogorets Razgrad | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Slavia Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Botev Plovdiv | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Cherno More Varna | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Botev Vratsa | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Dunav Ruse | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 7 W 1 D 0 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ludogorets Razgrad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 15/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 12/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/08 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ludogorets Razgrad vs Arda Kardzhali?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ludogorets Razgrad win (59%). Probabilities: Ludogorets Razgrad 59%, draw 25%, Arda Kardzhali 16%.
How many goals are expected in Ludogorets Razgrad vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Ludogorets Razgrad 1.79 · Arda Kardzhali 0.82), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ludogorets Razgrad vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.