Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 03/10, 20:00

Prediction: Universidad Guadalajara vs Dorados

Team pages: Universidad Guadalajara · Dorados

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Universidad Guadalajara2.07

Dorados1.11

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Universidad Guadalajara Draw Dorados

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Guadalajara 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDWDLW

Dorados 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLLWWDDL

Head-to-head

Universidad Guadalajara 5–1–0 Dorados (6 last)

Dorados1-1Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-0Dorados
Universidad Guadalajara4-0Dorados
Dorados0-1Universidad Guadalajara
Dorados1-2Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara4-0Dorados

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Guadalajara 1564 · Dorados 1489

	Universidad Guadalajara	Draw	Dorados
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Guadalajara (rating 1564 vs 1489).
H2H favours Universidad Guadalajara: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Guadalajara	Dorados
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.75 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.03
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:14 +13’	1.60	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +435’	1.75	4.03	3.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Guadalajara 5–1–0 Dorados

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	1-1 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara
05/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 HT 1-0	Dorados
19/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	4-0 HT 1-0	Dorados
04/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	0-1 HT 0-0	Universidad Guadalajara
21/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	1-2 HT 0-1	Universidad Guadalajara
15/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	4-0 HT 3-0	Dorados

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	10	7	0	3	20	11	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	10	6	2	2	23	11	20
3	Universidad Guadalajara	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	5	2	3	21	15	17
5	Venados FC	10	5	1	4	24	20	16
6	Piratas	10	4	3	3	12	10	15
7	Correcaminos	10	4	3	3	19	18	15
8	Cancun FC	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Tapatio	9	4	2	3	17	14	14
10	Alacranes de Durango	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
11	Dorados	10	3	4	3	17	14	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	10	3	2	5	18	22	11
13	Jaiba Brava	10	3	2	5	11	16	11
14	Oaxaca	10	3	1	6	8	18	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	10	1	4	5	11	18	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	9	1	0	8	5	28	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Guadalajara	Dorados
Atletico Morelia	0-2 L	0-1 L
Tapatio	3-1 W	3-1 W
Alacranes de Durango	2-1 W	0-1 L
Jaiba Brava	4-0 W	1-1 D
Cancun FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Tlaxcala FC	4-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Guadalajara (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Guadalajara

WWLWWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	20	5	W
20/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
13/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
07/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
30/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
23/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	0	4	W
16/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-0	3	8	W
07/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
02/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
26/07	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	4	5	W

Dorados

WDDLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
20/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
16/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
13/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	13	8	W
04/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-1	4-1	1	8	W
29/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
21/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	2-4	2	2	L
16/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-2	4	5	D
07/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
31/07	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	0	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Guadalajara vs Dorados?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Guadalajara win (58%). Probabilities: Universidad Guadalajara 58%, draw 23%, Dorados 19%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Guadalajara vs Dorados?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Universidad Guadalajara 2.07 · Dorados 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Guadalajara vs Dorados?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.