Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 11/10, 00:00

Prediction: Tlaxcala FC vs Piratas

Team pages: Tlaxcala FC · Piratas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Tlaxcala FC1.53

Piratas1.45

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Tlaxcala FC Draw Piratas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tlaxcala FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLWDWLWD

Piratas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLDWDWLW

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Piratas (rating 1484 vs 1527).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tlaxcala FC	Piratas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.4	3.3 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.8	5.5 / 1.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:08

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.31 → 3.35▲	Pinn 3.35
X	3.31 → 3.35▲	Pinn 3.35
2	2.11 → 2.13▲	Pinn 2.13

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +8’	3.31	3.31	2.11
04:13 +55’	3.35▲	3.35▲	2.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	11	7	1	3	21	12	22
2	Club Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24	13	20
3	Universidad Guadalajara	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	26	21	19
5	Piratas	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	5	2	4	23	19	17
7	Cancun FC	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
8	Alacranes de Durango	11	5	2	4	11	11	17
9	Correcaminos	11	4	4	3	19	18	16
10	Tapatio	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
11	Dorados	10	3	4	3	17	14	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	11	3	3	5	19	23	12
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
14	Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	8	22	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	11	18	8
16	Tepatitlan FC	10	2	0	8	8	29	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tlaxcala FC	Piratas
Atletico Morelia	1-1 D	1-0 W
Cancun FC	4-1 W	0-1 L
Alacranes de Durango	1-1 D	3-0 W
Venados FC	3-1 W	2-1 W
Oaxaca	0-2 L	4-0 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	1-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tlaxcala FC

LLDLWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
27/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	1	6	W
21/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
13/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	5	7	W
05/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
30/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	10	W
21/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
16/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-2	1	5	D
07/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
01/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	4	7	L

Piratas

WWLLDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-0	11	3	W
25/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	7	9	L
19/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
11/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-1	5	10	W
30/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
23/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
15/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	9	5	L
08/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	9	3	W
02/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	10	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tlaxcala FC vs Piratas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tlaxcala FC win (38%). Probabilities: Tlaxcala FC 38%, draw 27%, Piratas 35%.

How many goals are expected in Tlaxcala FC vs Piratas?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Tlaxcala FC 1.53 · Piratas 1.45), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tlaxcala FC vs Piratas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.